Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves – Box Score – April 15, 2012 – ESPN.
Nothing comes easy. Fredi Gonzalez will make sure of that, even if he has to use the Worst Pitcher on Earth, Chad Durbin. More about him later.
After a shaky first start, Brandon Beachy sparkled. Seven innings, three hits, one “unearned” run, six strikeouts and two walks. The Braves took the lead in the first when Michael Bourn led off with a single, Martin Prado bunted him over (sigh) and after a Chipper Jones walk Brian McCann hit a sac fly. The Brewers tied it up in the next inning after a two-base error by Prado and an RBI single, but as indicated that was all they would get.
The big blow of the game — though it wouldn’t have been enought for Durbin insurance — came in the third when Chipper homered to score Bourn and Prado made it 4-1. Jason Heyward hit a solo homer in the fourth to make it 5-1.
It stayed that way for awhile. Beachy left after seven, giving way to Kris Medlen, who allowed a hit but erased it on a double play. In the bottom of the inning, a pinch-hit single by Eric Hinske scored two, and that was enough to bring the Worst Pitcher on Earth into play.
WPE led off the ninth with a double. He then got a foul popup, then another double to make it 7-2. The next batter just got under another gift; the one after didnt’t, hitting a two-run homer to make it 7-4. Durbin somehow finished the inning with a strikeout; I would guess that the batter was drunk, or high.
A sweep & a 5-4 record. Gotta like the homestand so far.
Go Reds & go Astros, I suppose.
Are we sure he’s the Worst Pitcher on Earth and not that other guy we signed? Or is that other guy in our bullpen merely the Most Loathsome Pitcher on Earth?
If there is ever a time to use the worst pitcher on your staff to give the other guys a break, that’s the time. The problem was Wren signing him in the first place.
I would like to coin “Durbin Save”.
Pitcher come in with 4+ run lead and give up enough runs to make in a save (for any other pitcher) and gets final out before blowing the “Durbin Save”
Good thing is he probably wont be around all that long. He’s completely useless.
Checking out Gwinnett’s bullpen, who is Adam Russell?
4 games, 5IP 2H 1BB 9K
Pretty good start to the season for him, Gearrin, and Redmond.
Chad Durbin makes Tyler Yates look like Mo Rivera.
I think Russell was the tall guy in spring training, who the beat writers kept writing tall-guy-notes noting how tall he was because he was so tall.
@7 I was thinking the same thing Alex only instead of Yates I was going to say Kolb.
@2, Livan gives up singles. Durbin gives up XBHs.
Wren needs to admit he was wrong and cut Durbin’s useless ass.
Instead of “Reitsma Room”, it should be the “Durbin Deficit”. If you bring in Durbin, you’re gonna have a deficit in your score. I dunno, it’s a stretch.
This guy sucks though. I have to trust Atlanta knows what it’s doing. I have to trust an organization that can develop pitching out the ears, but still insists of having a “veteran presence” that often times ends up being a bust. Boom Boom Bobby, Alfonseca, Remlinger Part 3 (or is it 2?), the Scotts, etc. The sabermetrists would say Redmond, Gearrin, etc. would be better options (and talent-wise, they’re probably right), and they’re cheaper, but there’s a reason the Braves will hand a rookie a closer job (Kimbrel), but Redmond can’t sniff the big leagues in several years. What do they not see in the Cole Rohrboughs and Zeke Spruills, the guys that they’ve never given opportunities to or have traded away, but do see in the Jonny Venters and Mark Wohlers in the organization? Why will they trust some youth and not others, and have such a maddening fascination with expensive, veteran relievers in low leverage spots? They’ll pay the league minimum for a rookie with lights-out stuff, but drop $2M a year in middle relief? It’s just weird.
At the end of the day, it’s all a moot point, because they usually give the important innings to the performers, and the mop-up duty to the dregs, but they financially go about it backwards, and sometimes it means talented minor leaguers don’t get opportunities that, statistically, it appears they should.
Weird.
And as for Durbin, I imagine he gets released very soon if he keeps turning in these outings. We’re patient, but not stupid. Of course, he is owed a cool million.
Yeah, I just looked it up, and he’s making $900K. This makes me extremely angry.
I’m pretty sure the signing of Chad Durbin was profoundly stupid, thereby raising the possibility that, yes, Wren is too. This signing may actually somehow be more indefensible than Proctor. Somehow.
Compared to the major league minimum (480k), the opportunity cost for Diay (1.5m), Durbin (420k), and Hernandez (270k) is around 2m over Flande, Gearrin and Sutton. Ashtray money for some clubs, but not this one, at least to hear them tell it.
I expected Durbin to be released by now.
@ 14
Fool me once (Proctor) shame on you, fool me twice (Durbin) shame on me (wren)
I wish I could be incompetent at my job yet convince my employer to pay me $900k.
#Durbin
@16, This club would never fess up to even an obvious mistake so soon. Is there a team that would?
Durbin’s gonna get the rest of the month. Buckle up. At least Fredi is using him correctly.
But hey, Brandon Beachy.
Durbin must have been the Mike McQueary to the Jerry Sandusky in the Braves organization or something.
Yeah, lots more going on than the last guy in the bullpen. Beachy was more economical than usual, and would have been even more so if not for Prado’s error. We also hit the ball hard on several occasions that didn’t result in hits. Besides the other obvious heroes, I was really impressed by Pastornicky’s defense today.
We’re never going to win a 14 inning game with Durbin on the roster. That’s the only drawback to having him on the roster.
It’s not like our manager is stupid enough to use him in a 1-run game on the second game of the season before EOF even toes the rubber, only to use him 2 days later in a 3 run game.
Oh, wait…
Would you prefer that the big gun relievers get called on in a 7-1 game in the ninth? Oh. No. When that happens you whinge. When they bring in the garbage reliever for three outs with a six run cushion? You still whinge. Even in a win.
One begins to suspect you just like the melodious tenor of your whinging.
Sam, the correct choice wasn’t “the big gun relievers” or Chad Durbin. It was Flande or Gearrin, but they’re still in Gwinnett because Wren doesn’t think they deserve a shot; instead, we now employ two guys with giant forks sticking from their backs.
Heyward is off to a great start. This is big.
Sam nobody is arguing that the Braves should be using any of the big 3 in a 6 run game. They’re saying it’s stupid for an organization that claims payroll limitations all the time to spend 900,000 dollars on a washed up middle reliever when there’s 3-4 arms in Gwinnett that could fill the same function for 400,000 less.
I am thinking the same thing…is Durbin worse than all the relievers we have seen? Personally I think I have handle one of Livan and Durbin, but two is too many. When is Moylan coming back?
Sam, I definitely think the previously mentioned viewpoints is the issue. Durbin’s going to offer potentially the same (non)production that the AAA guys would, but for twice the cost. At the end of the day, not a huge deal, but as a fan, I don’t want to hear about payroll limitations when poor decisions like that are made.
Anything else you want to start an argument about?
Hard to see where Moylan fits in at this point. The only pitcher whose spot he might take is Martinez’s, and what has the Lisp done wrong?
I was at the game and I noticed a few things:
1) Bringing your dog to the game is stupid.
2) Chipper’s home run took like a tenth of a second to get out.
3) Heyward’s home run sounded like someone slapping 2x4s together really hard.
4) Braun is a terrible fielder.
5) Beachy was dealing
6) I don’t care what the numbers say, Freeman is a great with the glove.
@29 Just to get rid of one of Durbin/Livan, any usable pitcher will be fine. Moylan is just one that came to my mind. Anyone from AAA will be cool as well.
If Durbin and Leave On continues to struggle one of those career minor leaguers will come up and be the new slop guy. The difference between a fungible slop ML vet on the way out and a career organizational innings arm like Gearrin or Flande is negligible.
If they pitch Durbin in close games I’ll join this chorus. If Chad Durbin is the last guy out of the pen mopping up late innings with big leagues? There isn’t anything to worry about there.
Livan’s spot is defensible because he can spot start and pitch long relief. Durbin brings nothing to the table.
Ladies and Gents, your Miami Marlins:
http://www.sportspickle.com/embed/12245/marlins-stadium-outfield-contraption-goes-off-for-the-first-time
If Durbin and Leave On continues to struggle one of those career minor leaguers will come up and be the new slop guy.
Sam, I have never more fervently hoped you were right.
You know what’s worse than Chad Durbin?
People that spell whine with a “g.”
@23 – Sam hits the nail on the head and Rop Cope brought the point home.
I think there is universal agreement here in Bravesjournal that Durbin and Livan are absolutely horrible and we have 3-4 arms in Gwinnett that are half the cost and better.
This is in no way a payroll issue. But Durbin and fatty Livan have got to be removed from the roster ASAP.
(for me, even if Livan was good, I hate his guts with the fire of a 1,000 suns and it pisses me off daily that he’s a Brave. As a Spurs fan in hoops, that’s akin to signing Derek Fisher or my Dawgs hiring Steve Spurrier. Makes me sick seeing fatty Livan in a Braves uni).
Alex, why don’t you like Steve Spurrier? 🙂
I agree that it doesn’t much matter who mops up in late innings with big leads-except that you want the guy actually able to mop up. If you have to get up one of the big guns because he isn’t competent enough to close the game without undue stress, he isn’t doing much good. And, of course, you may actually have to pitch the guy in a real situation if you have one of those marathon extra-inning games.
By the way, when is Tad going to demand that Chipper retire immediately because he only hits one home run a game?
The Durbin outing was perfect in every way; he didn’t put the game in serious jeopardy but still showed how incompetent he is. The last thing we want him to do is have two or three decent outings in a row and then come in when the game is closer. The guy gives out more meatballs than an Italian restaurant.
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of Small Sample Size Theater!
Selected OPS of selected Braves:
C. Jones 1.417
J. Heyward 1.079
E. Hinske .929
B. Beachy .888
Thanks for listening to today’s episode of Small Sample Size Theater!
Chipper did something interesting in the seventh inning. He came up with one out, Bourn on second and Prado on first. The first pitch from Parra was a called strike, which Chipper bailed out on to allow the double steal attempt — which was successful, thus opening up first base (I didn’t like the play for that reason).
Sure enough, the next two pitches were well off the plate. Then the 2-1 pitch started low and sunk — not a pitch you could do much with, but Chipper swung at it anyway, making it a 2-2 count instead of 3-1. It seemed to me that he wasn’t fooled, but that he wanted to nudge Parra away from the “unintentional intentional walk”, and towards throwing him a pitch he could hit.
It didn’t work out, but it seemed to reveal a well-honed strategic thought process, sort of like Murph had talked about earlier in the game. And I wonder if Chipper wouldn’t rather Bourn and Prado just stayed where they were.
@42 if memory serves (and often it doesn’t) chipper was waaay out in front of the strike 2 pitch and looked like he might have tweaked his left knee a little. after the ab, i was just glad to see him walk back to the bench.
Interesting. If the Brewers were going to pitch Chipper carefully enough to just let him walk, I don’t see why Chipper wouldn’t just take it and let McCann hit with one out and the bases loaded.
@4: Of course, we already have the Atlanta Save, but I like the way you think :).
Someone bring me a beer.
Meanwhile in Cleveland, the infamous Derek Lowe is 2-0 with a 1.98ERA and 1.24whip…
(and 3 strikeouts and 16 hits allowed in 13.2 innings!)
The Royals had their backup CF pitch an inning today. He didn’t give up any runs. It’s actually the second time he’s done it, both times scoreless.
Why does Durbin have a job?
If you give up runs everytime you pitch, it is never the proper time to use you. If I’m down 10 in the third, I don’t want to be down 11 in the 4th.
Would really like to know what Wren’s thought process was when he decided to offer Durbin a major league contract. Why did he think that was a good idea?
Meanwhile, Flande has pitched nine scoreless innings for Gwinnett. He’s not on the team probably simply because he’s not a veteran.
@Sam
We’re labeling guys “career organizational arms,” in other words replacement players, at age 26? I doubt the difference between a Durbin, only semi-reliable in blowouts, and a Gearrin, potentially useful in blowouts OR in other leverage situations, is negligible. It adds flexibility to a pen that desperately needs flexibility, considering the limitations of the rotation.
Bobby V told the media that Youkilis isn’t as physically or emotionally into playing baseball as he’s been in the past. I sure am glad I’m not a Red Sox fan.
@1 ububba
Celebrating a sweep!
If you can spare a minute please tell us if you know why Tebow was booed in the Bronx.
And do you think anybody missed Axl last weekend?
How early will we see Evan Gattis giving LF a shot in the minors? This guy’s bat is for real but I don’t think he’ll ever stick at catcher. He’s got video game numbers thus far this year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gattis001eva
@49 It’s pandemonium here. Valentine is just stoking an already volatile fire ad it’s quite entertaining.
@44
The chances of a run scoring actually go down w/ bases loaded, one out versus 2nd&3rd, one out. Plus, we already had a good lead, so maybe Chipper just wanted to see if he could coax a hittable pitch out of Parra, just as a personal challenge. Obviously I’m guessing, but that’s how it struck me at the moment.
Valentine shouldnt have ever been hired for that job.
I think we can come to a consensus (90% agreement)on a few things about Durbin:
1) Chad Durbin is a horrible, horrible pitcher
2) It is never a good time to use him, but if you do, being 6 or more runs up or down in the 9th is probably the best time.
3) It’s a matter of time before Durbin is released, sent to the minors, or DL’d for inability to pitch.
4) We can all hope #3 comes sooner rather than later.
I’m not a big fan of Fredi, but if he’s forced to keep him on the roster and play him, winning 7-1 in the 9th was a good time to do it (not good, but you know what I mean). Anyone want to predict when #3 will happen? My guess is #3 will happen on Thursday, April 26, but I’m hoping for today!
@54 I’ve got no idea why they hired him. He’s a clown. They were making a big deal on the radio yesterday about how he’s taking a lot of time to keep up his NYC media connections. I don’t think he’ll last long.
Sometimes we get tired of the pabulum that, first Bobby Cox and now Fredi feed the media, but seeing something this absurd makes me appreciate the professionalism of the organization. I can’t imagine any line of work where it would be a good idea to criticize an employee in public like this.
Im not sure why Durbin is on the roster and Im not sure why anyone was complaining about how he was used yesterday. He sucks, we all know that and Im sure Fredi does by now also. But even he can get 3 outs before giving up 6 runs.
Did Medlen’s spot in the order come up in the 8th? If not, Id like to see Fredi let him finish off some games like yesterday. Bring him in during the 8th and just let him knock out the last two innings. Fredi has actually done a good job managing these past few games and Im sure our offense scoring runs helps make his job easier.
@58
It did, Hinske hit for him. I would have liked to see Medlin or the Lisp go the last two, but Drumin, I mean Durbin was signed for this situation. To cover the sperad.
“It was only a matter of time before John Smoltz took his rightful place in the Braves Hall of Fame, and his No. 29 on the left field façade at Turner Field, alongside those of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. That time will be June 8.
The club announced Monday that Smoltz’s would become only the ninth Braves jersey number retired, and it will go up in a ceremony before the Braves play the Toronto Blue Jays in a series opener on Friday, June 8. Smoltz will also be honored at a Hall of Fame luncheon that afternoon.” – AJC
Shoudl that be his nickname? “The Spread”?
@58, 59 – It bears noting that when Hinske stepped in for Medlen, the score was 5-1 and the bases were loaded with 1 out.
Hinske’s single drove in two, making it 7-1, and creating Durbin-Room.
I have no idea if anyone else was warming besides Durbin, and if Hinske hadn’t come through, if maybe Martinez would have come in.
Youkilis is starting to break down & his contract is up after this season. Guess Valentine’s trying to “motivate” him somehow.
#50
Wasn’t watching the Yanks/Angels game when the booing occurred. Seems like some folks might’ve been booing the Heat’s Dwayne Wade (who had just defeated the Knicks) as well.
But just guessing: 1) There are a lot of people, not just in NYC, who don’t like Tebow or are just tired of hearing about him; 2) They’re Giants fans booing a Jet; 3) They’re Jets fans booing their GM.
Axl? He probably did everyone (except the media) a favor by not showing up.
Two things – it was smart to let Hinske hit there with the bases loaded, no doubt. However I think Medlen could hold a 3 run lead if he had too also.
apologies if this has already been posted, but this just gave me enough laugh out loud moments to get me through a monday. http://i.imgur.com/eQN3m.jpg
John Jeremiah Sullivan’s 2006 profile of Axl Rose is a must-read.
http://tinyurl.com/3qcregc
Durbin is on the roster for the same two reasons Livian is on the roster.
1) MLB organizations are risk averse and always prefer known quantities (veterans) to unknown quantities (Yohand Flande.)
2) Last year Fredi and his team was (rightly) excoriated for riding his young relievers too hard. This year he prObably asked for and got a couple of rubber armed guys on the downside who can take a lot of abuse if needed without anyone worrying about how it might limit there long term prospects.
@66, Seconded.
Drama in Boston?
Hang on, let me grab some popcorn.
Mac,
I would like point out that if you include Durbin’s First name at the top of the page, you would have a nice acronym; ABCD, Anyone But Chad Durbin. This also works with Fredi’s tendency to play “ABC” baseball.
@67, that’s a bit of odd logic – O’Ventbrel got overused because a, we didn’t score many runs or b, the other relief options failed. Hiring two veteran crappy relievers addresses neither of those. I get the idea about risk aversion and prospect overuse, but again, Sherril at 4.5M was a veteran reliever who was actually not terrible. Durbin has a track record of being excruciating, and Livan’s is almost as bad over the last 5 seasons or so. Hiring bad baseball players is something beyond risk aversion, and in this case, doesn’t address the problem in any event.
In the same vein as the How to use bullpen good:
So, which one of you guys is rsponsible for these gems? (I got a sawbuck on AAR at -900.)
“Last year Fredi and his team was (rightly) excoriated for riding his young relievers too hard.”
Right, and nothing will get those “young relievers” used less than a pair of unreliable retreads who can’t be trusted in even semi-close games.
@72, oooh I am loving that, in a groupthink kind of way, of course.
@61 – Only if we call Livan “The Full Spread.”
I get it. Statistically and recent history indicate that it is just as probable that Livan/Durbin are no better than say Flande/Redmond. But neither has the track record at MLB that Livan/Durbin do. Both have a record of success. Yes Durbin has sucked more than he has been good and Livan hasn’t been very good lately but they do have some success in their history. This is risk aversion. And, once again, the Braves tend to believe scouting over stats. There must be something in the scouting reports that says Livan/Durbin have something left.
Don’t get me wrong. I am still confused by this fetish with worn our veterans but I can see a small reason for the Braves to make this move.
I had assumed that @Frediot (twitter) was someone on here…
@61 and 75
I second the motion.
Frediot posts as “Frediot” at CAC, which makes me think he’d do so here as well. I’m not sure we’ve been honored with his presence yet. The prospect of Sam’s wrath might keep him away as well.
@76, I’d even go along with that to some extent, but at what point do you admit failure of plan A? Fredi has shown a willingness to put up with mediocrity and worse for a long time – Proctor had THIRTY ONE appearances last year. He’ll use both of those stiffs as long as they are on the team.
ajcbraves: Chad Durbin allowed a home run in seven consecutive appearances w/ #Indians and #Braves going back to Sept. 14, 2011
79 — Thanks for the heads up. I haven’t been over to CAC in a while.
I love “The Barves.” Got a chuckle out of me.
@81
Record? Record for relief appearances?
Overall record is 9, for relievers it’s 5? BR.com has Durbin at 4 currently. Hmm.
Never mind, that’s for exactly 1 HR allowed. Durbin gave up 3 and “broke” the streak last year.
7 is the record for relievers! 2012 Atlanta Braves, where history is made!
Fredi Gonzalez was out with this pair at an Atlanta bar last night.
@84
Yes! The old record was 6, held by old friend Pete Smith and original Met Jay Hook. The three most recent to give up HRs in 5 straight appearances were Chad Paronto, Roman Colon, and Ron Mahay. Weirdly, along with the Pete Smith streak, none of these involved the Braves. Until now!
Roman Colon and Ron Mahay both had 5 straight, too (neither while with the Braves).
Blyleven with 20 straight for SPs.
Guess I was a little late. Our FO sure knows how to pick ’em, though.
So, apparently Wren picked up Durbin to make sure the Braves get credit for the homerun streaks we’ve been missing.
I wonder if he will let Durbin go after the first outing he does not allow a homer.
This should be fun to watch and see how it plays out.
“I’m more confused than anything, because I think everyone knows I go out and play the game as hard as I can,” Youkilis said via WEEI. “That’s just my style of play. I never was blessed with the raw tools … so I’ve always had to use playing the game as hard and with full effort my whole life. I don’t know any better, so that’s just the way I play.” – Youk
“I know that Youk plays as hard as anybody I’ve ever seen in my life,”Pedroia said (also via WEEI). “I have his back, and his teammates have his back. We know how hard he plays. I don’t really understand what Bobby’s trying to do. But that’s really not the way we go about our stuff here. I’m sure he’ll figure that out soon.” – Pedroia
Took Bobby V all of about 8-10 games to lose two of his best guys. Smart move.
If Durbin doesn’t right the ship and turn in some quality innings soon, he’ll be released before May 01.
You left out the best part of Pedroia’s bon mot – “Maybe that stuff works in Japan.” Zinggggg!
If Durbin is cut, it will cost the team 900k plus 500k at the minimum for his replacement, plus his shitty performances in games. Thanks a lot, Frank.
#91 – I guess I did, thanks. However, Bobby V didnt start Youk today either and they just lost 1-0 to TB. That should fire up a few folks.
Could you direct me to the details of Durbin’s contract, Spike?
■1 year/$0.9M (2012)
■signed by Washington as a free agent 2/1/12 (minor-league contract)
■released by Washington 4/2/12
■signed by Atlanta as a free agent 4/3/12
$2M for Diaz and roughly $2M for Livan Durbin might equal an actual ball player. Especially for a half season.
@96
I know it’s a bit early, but thus far, Diaz is doing exactly what he’s paid to do:
vs. LHP 2/10 2bb 1 double 1HR
.200/.333/.600/.933
@97 – Diaz has looked pretty decent at the plate so far. I’m not convinced that he’s the Matty D from 2008, but bouncing back and having an above average year would not be unheard of.
If he can get his batting average up to the .300 range and hit for a little power (like he was doing pre-2010), he will be a valuable bench player. I don’t see any reason why he can’t put up Hinske-like numbers with less power and a higher BA from the right side. At least that’s my hope.
Diaz understands his role and thats the most important thing. As long as Fredi doesnt allow him to hit RH’rs then we are in good shape.
Hope the rain in Bham right now can avoid Atl tonight. Its absolutely pouring here.
Bourn
Prado
Jones
Bmac
Uggla
Heyward
Hinske
Wilson
Hanson
Rain is moving rapidly E-NE and breaking up a bit as it nears ATL. I would guess they will get the game in, as the map looks now anyway.
Gee vs. Hanson… tonight’s pitching matchup looks to be pretty favorable for us.
BTW, I know his name is Dillon Gee, but this song always comes to mind whenever I hear his name:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLmbR-QMdCY
@103, me, too. Every single time.
Re: the Durbin.
In the grand scheme of things, Chad Durbin is no big deal. Yet his presence on this team gets under my skin, because he is the 527th washed up ballplayer the Braves have picked up off the scrap heap, and it never works. Am I forgetting someone? Is there an example of this strategy ever working? (John Burkett, maybe?) Because it is hard to root for a team that continues to make the same mistakes over and over again.
Livan, Durbin, and Francisco for Youkilis and Pedroia. Get it done, Frank.
Burkett. Chris Hammond. Mike Remlinger.
I’d be interested to see any performance clauses in Durbin’s contract.
Jaret Wright (in the regular season, anyway).
@108 – I can’t imagine Durbin’s work is going to qualify him for any bonuses, unless he gets paid extra for each HR he gives up.
Seat Painter at @72, you give me too much credit. Wish I had, but it ain’t me.
Julio Franco.
There’s a good podcast at Grantland with steve berthume discussing many baseballing topics. He hits on the Braves for a bit, with these highlights:
– Wanted to pick Braves to win the division, but just couldn’t due to young and injury-risky pitching staff.
– Pointed out that Braves have a really serious problem with the long (looooong) terms of the TV deal they are locked to. Said this has to be addressed (didn’t say how).
– Painted a sad portrait of Liberty Media. Said they are not a baseball-focused owner and basically write the Braves an operating budget (he said $88 million, don’t know where payroll really is) and say “here you go, this is all you get.”
Not exactly assuaging my worries about the long-term prospects for my favorite club.
@107, 109, the Braves have had notable success with castoffs – Jaret wright in addition to Sams list. That success seems to directly correlate to Leo Mazzone’s presence in the bullpen as there are no real notable examples since.
@116
Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlyle, Eric O’Flaherty, Venters. These guys performed better under Roger than they ever had prior to donning the Braves uni (or, in Venters’ case, the Braves’ major league uni). Hell, we got 163 innings of sub 4 ERA ball from Campillo, O’Flaherty had serious control issues before ’09, Venters had a minor league career ERA over 4, and Buddy’s ERA with the Braves is 2 runs less per 9 than his stints with other clubs.
Roger isnt too shabby.
Those are hardly veteran castoffs like Burkett et al. Venters and O’F are 27, ffs. And Carlyle and Campillo had ERA+ of 93 and 108 – hardly successes on the level of the aforementioned Mazzone group.
Mike Remlinger; 2006.
Chad Paranto, Ron Mahay; 2007.
Buddy Carlyle, Julian Tavarez, Jorge Julio, Jeff Ridgeway; 2008.
Jorge Campillo, Jeff Bennet; 2009.
Billy Wagner*; 2010.
You’re just looking past the successes and focusing on the failures (notably the still fresh wounds inflicted by “The Scotts” last year.) It’s also the case that of late, the Braves have developed a lot of young pitching talent, so they haven’t been looking for spare parts in the bullpen as often.
*I’m sure some will argue that Wagner wasn’t picked up “off the scrap heap,” but prior to his signing with Atlanta there was a *lot* of question as to whether or not the 38 year old Wagner still had something left in his tank, after an injury in PHL/BOS the previous year.
And Eric O’Flaherty counts for the Braves, here. He was a Rule V washout before the Braves picked him up.
Look you can parse it however you like. There are certainly plenty of cromulent relievers that change hands for next to nothing annually. Wagner, granted there were concerns, was coming off a fine season with Boston and cost ~7M plus a #1 draft pick – I don’t think that’s quite an apples-to apples comparison, but whatever. The point is that signing retreads is fine – as long as you don’t pay them much and are willing to jettison them pretty much immediately if they go south. Yes, the team has found good values post Mazzone, but none of the home-run types like Hammond. That certainly no reason to stop trying, but – and here’s the but – none of this can possibly be construed into thinking signing Chad Durbin is remotely near this category of player. Livan is slightly more defensible, because of starting depth concerns in the early going as either a spot starter or second long man. But both of those guys cost real money that the braves could have used in other places, or simply socked away for a midseason deal. The risk-reward benefit just wasn’t there.
Aww. I miss Campillo, what with his crazy curve ball and everything. It was really funny when he started a few games and was posting crazy strikeout rates. 🙂
It wouldn’t let me edit my post, but yes Venters and O’F are home runs by any measure, but that doesn’t really change what i was trying to convey here. Minor league deal for Durbin and I’m a lot more ok with whatever reason they thought was good enough to try him out. 900k guaranteed just was way over market.
Javier Vazquez worked out, as well. Many people thought he was done.
I’m not sure Durbin’s a full guaranteed 900K. I know he was picked up immediately after the Nats dropped him, but I’m not sure there’s not some pay for play incentives in his deal either. Either way, I don’t think “socking it away” for a midseason deal is going to make much difference. You aren’t going to pick up an impact player in June for the 1-2 mil difference between Livian/Durbin and Flande/Redmond. With that money, you might get, oh, maybe Rick Ankiel or something.
So I guess my final point here – and yeah, this will be the final one here – is that I think you’re drastically overestimating the value of the sunk cost differential between Durbin and Flande. One costs $450K. The other costs $900K. You’re not going to upgrade LF to something better than Prado for the $550K difference.
Vazquez made 11.5M – again, really not the same thing.
@125, but none of that makes the affirmative case for pissing it away on a guy like Durbin. It’s just not a defensible use of resources.
So are they in a rain delay or what?
Some light rain now, but it looks good for getting the game in.
No delay. Radio is running down the starting lineups now.
On that note, I gave up cable this winter, so I’m doing a lot of radio this year. Bobby Cox is the most marketable Braves personality on local radio, for the record.
I do not believe he’s really “friends” with the founder of Superior Plumbing. I believe he’s having me on.
Yeah, but he does ask the guy some pretty hard hitting questions.
Not a soul at the park.
I grow tired of Tommy Hanson being pedestrian.
Dillon has quite the Nebuchadnezzar beard in his gamecast photo.
He does. It’s like a dead ferret on his face. Someone should weed whack him.
Don Sutton believes people text from their computers.
Two fly balls to CF that Bourn had to run hard for?
Great catch by Bourne. Tommy looks great.
BMac hit that ball so hard that even the shift couldn’t help the Mets.
Heyward, still smokin’…
Over/under for the squeeze?
Given the situation… that’s a productive out.
So, I’ve noticed that Chip and Joe have increased their usage of percentages in the broadcast. Is this there attempt at embracing “advanced” statistics?
You can text from a computer. Check out Google Voice.
Wow, what a stupid run to give up.
Joe is talking about how he hates walks. So much for the advanced statistics theory.
The top of the lineup has just looked bad tongiht. 🙁 Hopefully the guys further down keep up their good work! 😀
Man, Uggla looks like garbage. Par for the course, I guess.
@ 146
But Chip referred to the “swing to damage ratio” earlier. Thats real right?
@146, taking them or giving them up?
//not that I need to ask really – Joe took on the role of anti-0stat curmudgeon long ago.
@150 Something along the lines of “no one comes to the park to see a bunch of walks.”
Lord knows anyone that went to a ballpark to see Joe Simpson walk a bunch would have been disappointed.
You guys are right about this social media stuff, oof.
Joe used to play the antistat role when Sciambi was his partner, and it worked, because Boog was more than enough tonic to cut Simpson’s “I used to hit behind the runner and make outs, so that’s what’s good” schtick.
Obviously Chip doesn’t have the chops to balance Joe out.
“Beth what are you doing after the game? #FSBraves”
No one ever went to the park to see Joe Simpson. I mean, seriously. There was never a “Joe Simpson fan.” Even his parents and kids rooted for his teammates, at best.
You can’t rob Jack Wilson.
@154 I’ve concluded that Chip is there is laugh at Joe’s jokes.
Ugh, I can’t believe that.
It is funny, on ESPN’s Gamecast it usually shows the results of an at-bat- i.e., “M Bourn grounded out to second.” But for Hanson, it just says “Dillon Gee pitching to Tommy Hanson.” I guess the app is smart enough to know that any time someone is pitching to Hanson an out is the foregone conclusion.
Just a note, going back to the Durbin vs. Misc Minor Leaguer debate.
The major factor in favor of the minor leaguers, is that they are paid a pro-rated portion of the minimum, while Durbin, aside from making double that, is guaranteed his money, as his is a major league deal.
So if you start with Flande, and he stinks, you go to Gearrin, to Someone else, until someone produces. With enough spins, you’ll land on red eventually.
So Flande represents a 480k gamble on every arm you’ve got. Durbin represents a 900k bet on just Durbin.
Well, that sucked…
There’s your ballgame.
Still does..
OK I don’t understand that strategy at all. Why so many 75 mph breaking balls? That was bound to happen.
I am really now concerned about Hanson’s velocity. He’s sitting 90 tonight again. This on the heels of shoulder problems does not look promising.
Does Fredi think Tommy Hanson is left-handed?
Why is our manager so freaking stupid? Seriously. Anyone could do the job at least as well as he does it.
Hey guys, don’t worry so much. We’re capable of scoring 3 more runs before this series is over…
Coming into the game, career vs Hanson:
Wright, 3 for 20, 8 Ks, no HRs
Davis, 2 for 12, 6 Ks, no HRs
Of course, this year Wright is hitting about .560, while Davis is around .140.
Pitching to gee was the correct choice, but I’m less sure about the pitch selection, which is on McCann too.
We were due to lose one, I guess. Tip yer cap and let’s get ’em tomorrow, right?
Tommy Hanson has no clutchitude. He is devoid of clutchiness.
Someone explain the interference.
Dammit.
I’m not watching, I just assumes he hit his glove w the bat. He’s done that a few times.
how do you not PH for Wilson here?
You are Fredi.
Amen # 175 .. Gonzalez is clueless … what a MGR !!!
Why would you not pinch hit for Wilson, Frediot? Unless Pastornicky is hurt, that’s inexplicable.
Francisco instead of Freeman is pretty indefensible, too.
Saving Freeman for the bigger PA later in the game.
Francisco can go back to wherever he, Durbin and Livan came from. This seems to be more wasted roster spots that normal seasons
@180 Yeah, like when it is 8-1 heading into the bottom of the 9th and he gets called on to lead off the inning
Jo Ann Santana? What an embarrassing broadcast. You get what you pay for, I guess.
#180 .. If Freeman aint hittin for Wilson .. you think he is gonna hit for Bourn, Prado, Jones, McCann, Uggla, or Heyward ?? No … wasted him .. Gonzalez is pitiful as a Mgr .. Wren better be looking for another guy !!
Ned Yost .. Ned Yost .. Ned Yost !!!!!!!!!
or ANYBODY BUT GONZALEZ … please BOBBY COME BACK !!!!!!
You don’t have to squint very hard to see 5-7 coming in the distance. Of course, I would have taken 0-10 after tonight if it had meant we were rid of Frediot.
@185
My friends who are Brewers fans inform me that we want no part of Ned Yost as manager, not in this or any lifetime.
@188 … Im just saying anybody … NED, BOBBY , OBAMA .. whoever !!
You guys can complain about Durbin and Leevan all you want and I agree with you 105%. But can we get rid of Skip’s son when we get rid of Chad and Hernandez? Please!
Eight runs in four games against the Mets, and five of them were scored with a 7-0 deficit.
@180 .. who did Freeman hit for ??????????
This loss is on the Braves offense but Fredi has to account for 3 Frediotic moves:
1). Not PH for Wilson
2). Letting anyone but Freeman hit for Hanson.
3). Walking Wright
How is this lack of critical thinking accepted night after night? I seriously believe Fredi is worried about hurting his players’ feelings.
@192 He was being sarcastic. He didn’t hit for anyone.
@193 … Dont know if that was sarcasim or not …. possibly .. and yes I know freeman didnt hit for anybody !!
#192 – He was mocking the managers stupid decision to save him.
@193 .. I was being sarcastic with the ” who did Freeman hit for” comment.
Man that FSS broadcast is just awful.
Amazing, we can’t beat the Mets. It’s all Fredi’s fault.
Sweet merciful crap. I went out drinking, and what the hell happened? Is ryan c’s list @193 accurate?
197 – I could not agree more. If you are going to have a twitter chick, which I wish they didn’t, but if you are, make sure she is at least hot.
The random cut ins from the sideline guy rehashing everything we already heard from Braves Live was annoying as hell too.
As for the game, until the braves get more than 3 hits every 10 games from the SS position they are going to have issues scoring runs. With Freeman having some tough luck, Uggla is doing his April swoon thing, and SS being a big doughnut offensively right now, this team is going to have a hard time beating anybody good.
CAC’s analysis of the decision to walk Wright is interesting. That seems like a good basis to analyze Fredi’s decisions when all is said and done.
I remember after Tommy’s last start he said he felt more comfortable with the curve as opposed to the fastball, and it seems that was the case again last night.
What would Furman Bisher have said about Pedroia’s Japan comment if he was still alive?
I don’t think Fredi is a good in-game manager but I still think the players are the thing. Lots of teams win with lousy managers; I once read where Bill Lee, talking about his manager on the ’75 Red Sox that went to the 7th game of the World Series, said, “he spent all year falling out of trees and landing on his feet.” I mean, how different is Fredi tactically from Bobby Cox?
I didn’t see the game but, after reading the CAC analysis (thanks Adam R), I don’t see what the hysteria is about walking Wright with a 2-0 count with a clearly inferior (albeit left-handed) hitter on deck. It seems to me that most, if not all, managers would have walked Wright after he got to 2-0. People are just looking for reasons to blame every loss on Fredi Gonzalez. Blame the Braves management for not putting together a team that can hit or starters that don’t wilt after five innings. Or not having to rely on a 40 year old that can barely walk for offense.
Fredi probably is a slightly worse in-game manager than Bobby Cox.
The thing is, Bobby Cox is probably one of the five best managers of all time, and he succeeded despite sucking at in-game tactics, not because of it. So Fredi shares one of Bobby’s weaknesses. It’s hard to see that he shares Bobby’s strengths. Through approximately four and a half seasons over six years, he’s 276-279, and it’s hard to say exactly just what it does that he does well. Perhaps he will improve. But then, I have been hoping that about Chip Caray for years.
My issue with the walk to Wright is it put on another baserunner in a critical inning (the sixth–past the half-way mark in the game) with a power hitter in Ike Davis coming up behind him. I think you have to take your chances with Wright, especially with two out. There was a runner on third, Fredi seemed to be concerned about Wright knocking him in–only to have Ike knock them all in.
I’ve no problem w/the Wright walk…the issue w/me is that Gearrin still hasn’t given up a run in AAA (11-2 K/BB rate in 10 inn) while WPE and Livan continue to crap the bed w/every appearance.
@205, Fredi doesn’t seem to land on his feet nearly as much?
But in the seventh inning, especially the way the Brave hit, you have to cut off any runs. Obviously 4-1 is worse than 3-1 but there is no reason to think the Braves could have come back from 3-1. You have to cut off any runs at that point and it’s not irrational to think that you have a better chance to get Ike Davis than David Wright, especially with a 2-0 count.
AAR,
You say that Bobby was one of the five best managers of all time. Why is that (other than his record)? If you look at his teams in both Toronto and (his second stint) in Atlanta, they were all loaded with talent. Basically, what everyone says is that Bobby managed the clubhouse well and got guys to play for him. But no one really knows what that entails and we don’t know if Fredi is any worse. And, look, Ozzie Guillen–who no one would really say is a great manager of people-has the same number of WS wins as Bobby. Fredi Gonzalez has had nothing close to the talent Bobby had. I’m not knocking Bobby Cox, obviously, but the only real difference I see is that Bobby had better players. I think Fredi Gonzalez would look a lot better if he was running out Gred Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz instead of Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Brandon Beachy (who might be a very good pitcher at some point but is clearly not in that class now). And if he had a Chipper Jones in his prime instead of a 40 year old version.
4 straight off speed pitches to Ike Davis was the worst decision of the night. Eventually you are going to leave one up.
All of this is null and void because the offense only scored one run.
Oh dear god, Fredi on Durbin:
So the solution is to pitch Durbin more…
@203 – tactically? Well, probably not much, but that never was Bobby’s long suit. (Don’t let me get started on Leibrant to Puckett…)
But, for better or worse, Cox filled the role of unquestioned boss in the clubhouse, holding the team to a standard of performance that was generally accepted and self-enforced by the players, themselves.
Those that didn’t buy in didn’t last.
Don’t see that from Fredi yet. Not sure we will. And when Chipper (and, probably, McCann) are gone and the Expo budget kicks in he’s going to look even worse.
Ya know, watching Tommy Hanson and Josh Smith compete for the “Which Gifted Player Can Perform at a More Brain-Dead Level” simultaneously is not good for my soul.
Is Horford NEVER coming back?
@209, Let’s not forget that Bobby was a big reason that some of our key players took hometown discounts, against all odds, which was critical to our sustained success. So we do actually know a little about what “got guys to play for him” entails.
@212, I’m hoping this is just misdirection or, probably, a badly-needed bit of public encouragement for a player — and not a statement of tactical intent.
Does anyone else think the NL will adopt the DH sooner rather than later?
I think it will be decades before the NL adopts the DH. Hopefully it won’t happen in my lifetime.
No.
I don’t walk Wright in that situation.
These men are paid to pitch. And they are paid well to pitch well.
The manager is paid to make decisions. This one went bad.
Maybe Tommy will remember not being allowed to do his job. Maybe he won’t care.
I hope he does.
Well, it was also his job to get Davis out. I’m more hopeful that he doesn’t hang any more sliders.
@216, the 7th reliever costs significantly less than the starting DH, so really, I can’t see it either at the moment.
“But, for better or worse, Cox filled the role of unquestioned boss in the clubhouse, holding the team to a standard of performance that was generally accepted and self-enforced by the players, themselves.
Those that didn’t buy in didn’t last.
Don’t see that from Fredi yet. Not sure we will. And when Chipper (and, probably, McCann) are gone and the Expo budget kicks in he’s going to look even worse.”
That’s sort of a chicken-and-egg argument. Maybe there was a higher level of acceptable performance because the players were better. No doubt players loved playing for Bobby. But did that really affect their performance? The Red Sox and A’s hated Dick Williams but they won pennants for him. The reality is that we have no idea how Fredi does in the clubhouse. All we know is that the team doesn’t win as many games as they did with Bobby. But Bobby wasn’t winning any pennants either in the last years, without Maddux, et. al. And I believe that Bobby Cox did order intentional walks on some occasions.
Obviously, Fredi will look worse when the lower budget kicks in. Who wouldn’t? Jim Leyland won the World Series in 1997 and then won 54 games when the Marlins sold off their players.
And, really, whether Wright should have been walked would have been moot if Hanson had done his job. At some point, you can’t blame the manager for the players lack of performance.
Not a fan of the DH, either, but the talent drain is hard to dismiss.
And guys like McCann are clearly more valuable in the AL (especially long term) than the NL.
Marc, what I wrote may have been hyperbole, but he’s almost certainly top 10. In this, as in everything I ever write about managers, I’m heavily influenced by Chris Jaffe’s book “Evaluating Baseball’s Managers.” As of 2006, Cox was eleventh-best of all time in managerial runs above average according to the list Jaffe compiles, behind:
1. Joe McCarthy, +1451 runs
2. Tony La Russa, +1012 runs
3. Bill McKechnie, +998 runs
4. Walter Alston, +904 runs
5. John McGraw, +853 runs
6. Al Lopez, +836 runs
7. Earl Weaver, +744 runs
8. Billy Martin, +715 runs
9. Frank Chance, +686 runs
10. Fred Clarke, +672 runs
11. Bobby Cox, +655 runs
Bobby Cox is in a virtual dead heat with #12 Billy Southworth, who was worth +653 runs.
AAR,
I’m not really arguing that Bobby wasn’t a great manager. But he did have better players than Fredi. And people complained about a lot of Bobby’s in-game and lineup decisions, especially during the playoffs.
My point is people are blaming Fredi everytime someone hangs a curve or pops up with men on base. I certainly am not enamored with his in-game decision making but the bigger problem, IMO, is that the Braves players aren’t as good as they were under Bobby Cox (of course, he was at least partly responsible for that during his tenure as general manager).
“My point is people are blaming Fredi everytime someone hangs a curve or pops up with men on base.”
Time for an update to the old Andruw song:
Who controls Frank Wren’s brain?
Who makes BravesJournal go insane?
Fredi! Fredi!
Who makes Cristhian play like crap?
Who gives him beer straight from the tap?
Fredi! Fredi!
Who makes Durbin give up long balls?
Who makes umpires miss all these calls?
Fredi! Fredi!
Who makes Wren make bad deals?
Who causes pain to Chipper’s wheels?
Fredi! Fredi!
At this point we look so bad against lefties that I wonder how long it’ll be before teams start to adjust their rotations just for a series with the Braves. Call up a young guy for a spot start, or start a middle reliever or two, stuff like that.
Arent we 3-0 against the last three lefties?
Wandy 4IP 6H 4ER
Wolf 4.1IP 9H 8ER
Narveson 4IP 4H 5ER
And Fredi sometimes pulls our starters before the 6th innning.
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1355247
“In three weeks – the last two weeks of April and the first week of May – I did 36 Tommy John procedures. Most of them were high school kids. That’s unbelievable. That’s a major operation.” – Dr. James Andrews
Recapped. Sorry for the even-longer than delusional delay, but have decided that the best treatment for now is just to sleep as long as possible.
They walked Wright to get to Davis because:
1) Wright has been killing the ball,
2) Ike Davis has been struggling mightily, and
3) Ike Davis struggles to hit curveballs.
That’s also why they fed him curve after curve after curve.