Comments on: Nationals 3, Braves 2 (12 innings)

By: Marc Schneider

Marc Schneider — Thu, 01 May 2008 19:42:59 +0000

It seems to me that the concept of one-run games is pretty arbitrary. It’s odd that they have lost nine straight one-run games in the same way it would be odd if they lost nine straight games by the same score, say 5-2. If Felipe Lopez had hit a home run, it would not have been a one-run loss. Several of the one-run losses have been like that, where the Braves come back and fall short. Similarly, some of their wins could have been one-run wins if they hadn’t scored more. The overall record in one-run games is largely luck because the specific score of a given game is arbitrary. So the Braves have lost nine games that happened to be decided by one run; that part is random but it’s not random that the Braves have played poorly enough to lose those games.

By: Perimeter Perez

Perimeter Perez — Thu, 01 May 2008 18:03:03 +0000

Interestingly enough, the Braves are making a good argument that luck has less influence on one-run games than previously thought.

Rather, it appears to me that attributing a team’s W-L record in one-run games to luck assumes that the team is playing in the same manner they would regardless of the score. Of course, that opens up a vault of complex questions, including, “How exactly does a team change its style of play according to specific game situations? Should they?”

But these 0-9 Braves have demonstrated that eschewing plate discipline in favor of swinging for the fences doesn’t get the job done. Shrewd managing (or lack thereof) plays a role, as does the effectiveness (perhaps even experience) of a team’s bullpen. It’s all very tough to quantify; not even scholars like Bill James have been able to do it yet.

It’s difficult to lose nine coin flips in a row. There has to be something that this team can change.

By: hankonly

hankonly — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:55:22 +0000

Bobby’s long suit has never been game management. Remember Liebrant in to face Kirby Puckett? Oy!

Bobby Cox is the Bill Curry of play-calling. Whatever inspiration you have, do the opposite.

By: Mac Thomason

Mac Thomason — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:45:27 +0000

John Rocker is outraged at the use of foreignese in this thread.

New thread.

By: Tom

Tom — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:42:04 +0000

@64 timoreg: Are you German?

If yes, hast Du vielleicht Lust mir mal eine E-Mail zu schicken: frankschildheuer web.de Würde mich freuen einen deutschen Bravesfan kennenzulernen.

If no, you may wonder what I was talking about in my last sentence.

By: bfan

bfan — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:40:47 +0000

For what it is worth, sac. stats do not take into account failed sacrifices. I have seen at least twice this year (and i don’t watch that much) Diaz try and bunt until he had 2 strikes, at which point the value of the at-bat is pretty washed up (I know he is a good 2 strike hitter, but the odds of success with 2 strikes go way down).

By: Mac Thomason

Mac Thomason — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:39:50 +0000

Well, what happened last year is that the Braves tried to bunt a lot, especially late in the year, and failed. Bobby would send pinch-hitters up to bunt and they’d strike out.

But what I mean is stuff like, well, yesterday, when McCann was praised for grounding out to first base. They’ve taken this to a whole new level, where they’re not even trying to get hits with runners on base and less than two out.

By: Spiral Stairs

Spiral Stairs — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:36:50 +0000

Mac, your point in 36 is interesting. So interesting that I forwarded it to a colleague with whom I’ve been arguing of late over the value of sacrifices and small ball. When he pressed me for actual evidence that the Braves play small ball more than other teams I looked up the NL stats from last year and there was only one team that had fewer sacrifices than the Braves. That hardly seems like a club that is playing small ball. Is there actual non-anecdotal evidence that Bobby is playing this type of baseball?

By: timoreg

timoreg — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:36:27 +0000

Subjectively, I have seen better at bats from Francoeur this year than in the past. Maybe not in the last two games but generally speaking.

By: Adam R

Adam R — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:32:10 +0000

Smoltz coming back as a reliever…

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3376418