A lower team ERA every year since 2008 is difficult to argue with. Pretty good trend, right? Well, maybe. Here’s the chart with league averages and the Braves’ league rank:

Year	ERA	(NL)	Rank
2006	4.60	4.49	10
2007	4.11	4.43	3
2008	4.46	4.29	12
2009	3.57	4.19	3
2010	3.56	4.02	3
2011	3.48	3.81	4
2012	3.42	3.94	4
2013	3.38	3.76	5

OK, so providing some context renders the team’s performance a little less impressive. After the quantum leap in results in 2009, the team ERA has declined 5.6%, but in an overall environment in which the league ERA has declined 11.4%. This context is reflected in the gradual slippage in league rank.

Well, so what, you could argue. Our pitchers continue to perform significantly above average, and if we’re in a tightly bunched pack atop the league ranking, the difference between, say second and fifth could just be an exercise in hair-splitting.

One last chart, this time with Fangraphs’ pitching WAR added:

Year	ERA	(NL)	Rank	WAR	Rank
2006	4.60	4.49	10	9.4	14
2007	4.11	4.43	3	11.1	10
2008	4.46	4.29	12	9	11
2009	3.57	4.19	3	21.2	2
2010	3.56	4.02	3	19.2	2
2011	3.48	3.81	4	18.6	3
2012	3.42	3.94	4	16.7	6
2013	3.38	3.76	5	3.5	8

Now that’s a little more disturbing. In general, a pitching staff’s line-drive rate will correlate with its batting average on balls in play. The Braves, meanwhile, rank 10th in the NL with a 20.5 LD% but 3rd in BABIP at .277.

A lot of this disparity is due to the presence of a rangy (if error-prone) outfield and the stellar Andrelton Simmons (seriously, if you extrapolate his performance in his first 90-some games at shortstop to a full season, it would rank as one of the absolute best SS defensive seasons of all time. Andrelton is up there with Belanger and Ozzie, and you need to know that…it’s an honor to watch him in the field). But some of it is also luck — no NL team in the last ten years has combined a 20+% LD rate with a sub-.280 BABIP, so something’s gotta give.

If you buy the premise that the team’s pitching performance is in decline, then the question becomes why. Of course, there’s no simple answer, because any pitching staff’s dynamics are in permanent flux — players are acquired and jettisoned, some guys develop, others get old. Some find an effective new pitch, others lose command of their old reliable pitches. But in the Braves’ case, over the past six years they find themselves dealing with one variable more often than any other major league team — our guys keep tearing their elbow ligaments.

To be continued….

Roger McDowell was hired as Braves pitching coach on October 29, 2005, replacing the legendary Leo Mazzone, who had accepted a similar position with the Orioles. The Braves had just won what turned out to be the last of their 14 straight division titles, but ominous cracks in the foundation were clearly showing, particularly on the pitching staff.

The ’05 rotation was headed by stalwarts John Smoltz and Tim Hudson (in his initial Braves campaign), but behind them were the perpetually injured Mike Hampton, the sporadically baffling Horacio Ramirez, the putatively tantalizing prospect Kyle Davies, and also John Thomson. This was also the year that Dank Lob and Chris F%*#ing Reitsma took turns coughing up the closer role.

Injuries and ineffectiveness combined to force the team to employ 26 different pitchers. Honestly, if it weren’t for an out-of-the-blue season by Jorge Sosa along with late-season acquisition Kyle Farnsworth taking charge of ninth innings, the team would likely have missed the postseason altogether.

So the situation McDowell inherited was a far cry from the glory days of the previous decade. And in his first season, things…didn’t go well. Almost every holdover from ’05 pitched worse in ’06, and a few (chiefly Davies and Reitsma) flatlined completely. Jorge Sosa was so terrible that Mac decreed that his name from thenceforth would be Kim Jong-Il. The team ERA ballooned from 3.98 (6th in the NL) to 4.60 (10th). The future looked bleak, fans were despondent, and Mac resorted to filmmaking (thus proving beyond a doubt that from great pain comes great art). Former Richmond pitching coach Guy Hansen, who’d made at least one list as a candidate to replace Mazzone in the first place, was brought back in his former role, and the heat was at least a little bit on McDowell already.

But the staff managed a turnaround in 2007, posting a 4.11 ERA that was good for 3rd in the league. The pitching the following year was an unmitigated disaster, but most observers put the primary blame for that miserable 2008 assemblage of has-beens and never-weres on the front office. Still, if you’d posted a poll after ’08 asking to grade McDowell’s job performance, I believe the results would have settled around a C-. That is not, however, where his grade would stay.

To be continued…

After a day’s delay, Ponce de Leon Park debuts with a 2-1 Atlanta Crackers victory over the Shreveport Pirates. Atlanta’s Pete Zellers gave up more free passes (two walks and four hit batters) than hits (four) in recording the win.

The delay came after two railroad derailments left Shreveport stuck in Eutaw, Alabama, unable to make the scheduled 3:30 start on Friday, May 25. A Saturday crowd, reported as 8,426 paying and 500 free passes, was on hand to watch the affair, which took a lengthy 2:15. Atlanta papers reported that the delay cost the Crackers $2,000 since the postponed game would be made up later as part of a doubleheader.

The ball park was built on the site of an amusement park, with construction starting after the end of the 1906 season. Atlanta’s street car company and silent owner of the Crackers, The Georgia Railway and Electric Company, built the park and then provided the transportation to the park. Today a historical marker stands where the magnolia tree guarded the outfield. The site is a shopping center across from the old Sears store and regional warehouse and more recently City Hall East on Ponce de Leon Avenue in east Atlanta.

Hi all. Stu’s wife Kate back for more. I’m so exhausted from JD’s ridiculous work project that is supposed to end soon, so I am here again to give you a not-so-accurate or excellent recap. Thanks to Charlie, you haven’t had to have one of these since April. But I am back, discussing mostly facial hair and why people are at this game in the middle of the day when they should be at work.

So Maholm is the pitcher. “Maholm” is not spelled like it sounds: MaHALUM? Is our pitcher not Hawaiian? He looks blonde and they did confirm he was from Hattiesburg, but gosh that name sounds like gratitude in Maui.

Also,  who goes to the games in the middle of the day? Chip called them a “business meeting game” but I can imagine many more things I’d rather do than going to a hot baseball game in my suit. Maybe on the club level with a yummy ice-cold beer (it’s tough being pregnant during the summer when you crave but can’t enjoy beer!), but I can’t imagine many deals are made in the Atlanta heat.

1^st Inning

Edsnoredo for the first batter. Florimon? What an interesting name, but a boring at bat for Pedro. The Twins are yawning in the dugout. It is10 am Minnesota time, so I would be yawning too… tough life playing professional ball, isn’t it, Hicks? Elsewhere, there’s a guy sweating in his three-piece-suit in the nosebleed section. Hmm, Maholm walks Willingham. The Mississippi Hawaiian wracks up 18 pitches in the first ½ inning. I actually don’t know if that’s good or bad? Commercial break with the announcement that RUN DMC IS COMING TO TURNER FIELD ON JUNE 1^st? Now that’s how you get your reluctant wife to a game.

BRAVES UP

Vance Worley is the pitcher for the Twins. I think Vance sounds like an AC repairman’s name rather than a pitcher. We’ll see if he should keep his current job here in a minute. BTW, guys, thanks for not pointing out that I misspelled Schafer the whole recap last time. I’ll work on that today. He walked to first anyway, so way to go S-C-H-A-F-E-R. Wait, who is Ramiro Pena? I’m so lost. Can you tell JD has been working so much that I don’t have to hear the game via his cell phone broadcast during important parts of our evenings together (dinner as a family, Maggie’s bathtime, etc.)? Pena makes a hit that drops behind second into center field. “Heyward has a healthy cut,” says Chip. WHAT? I almost burn the muffins in the oven rolling my eyes too much over that comment. Heyward hits a line drive to third bringing SCHAFER home. They just showed an interesting stat on my AC repairman, Vance: “17 runs allowed in 1^st Inning (10 Starts).” I bet that pitching coach gets so nervous during Vance’s starts. Freddie: fly ball into left, but Pena runs home and gets thrown out at the plate. Gattis up… digging on this serious beard, even for a hot “business meeting game.” Alas, he strikes out.

2^nd Inning

Ok so I’m looking at all these people in the stands and I see NO business suits. I’m somewhat disappointed. And whoa Ryan Doumit has an awesome handlebar moustache. Not many dudes can pull that off. I think, generally, professional baseball players automatically could (well maybe not SCHAFER or generally lanky players), but can you imagine Julio Franco with that kind of facial hair? That would be glorious. Handlebar Moustache gets out at first. Colabello’s first big league at bat gets a quick out with a pop up. Apparently Colabello’s dad played for the Italian Olympic team? Love it! That’s something JD would have told me if he were here. So, I’m going to share it with you, despite Chip telling me instead of my lovely husband. Hicks has finished yawning and makes a solid hit to Pena who can’t get him out at first. Dozier gets the final out.

BRAVES UP

Chris Johnson hits a pop-up to right field. I just notice that Vance has some chin-hair-only happening. What’s up with the facial hair this game? Not a fan of the ONLY chin-hair thing, personally. Struggla hits a “bullet” out to left (thanks, Chip). BJ hits a hi-fly to left field, no advancement by Struggla. The Mississippi Hawaiian is up… he has a better batting average than Struggla! But yuck he hits a quick out to first. Everyone is done.

3^rd Inning

The AC repairman hits a ground ball to short. Escobar and Florimon do the same thing. I feel like saying “mahalo” to the Mississippi Hawaiian.

BRAVES UP

SCHAFER strikes out. Maybe he’s just upset he’s not in the facial hair club. Pena has a fascinating triangle of facial hair below his lip…. A soul patch that just keeps spreading into the chin. Wow I was going to make fun of it, but maybe that’s what helps you hit home runs beyond right field, which Pena just did. Nice work, Triangle Chin! Heyward gets hit by a pitch and heads to first. Um, does Vance have a Mohawk? I’m very interested. Gattis is up after Freddie strikes out. Gattis gets hit in the elbow, and he’s now at first with Heyward at second. Joe Simpson just talked about Gattis’ “meaty forearm.” EVERYBODY has a crush on the white bear. Chris Johnson hits a nice ball out to center/left field, bringing Heyward home. Ugh, Struggla stops the mo and gets a quick out with a pop-up.

4^th Inning

Willingham gets a quick out at first. No facial hair for Willingham. Justin Morneau has a 13-year-old’s handlebar moustache. He’s just trying to fit in! Bless his heart, and he gets an out with a lame pop-up that Struggla catches. Mr. Handlebar himself/Doumit also hits the ball to left center for an easy out.

BRAVES UP

I notice now that BJ has this little moustache happening. I think it works for him, though. I’m not usually a thin moustache kind of girl. Again with the reoccurring facial hair correlation with success, BJ hits a homer beyond left field. Bummer for the Mississippi Hawaiian who hits a ball almost to the warning track. That would have been nice. Then SCHAFER pulls off a “textbook” bunt but later gets out when Pena’s quick hit gets him to first. Pena advances when Heyward hits a single. Heyward is having a solid game. Probably because of his very adult beard. Freddie walks to first and the bases are loaded with two out. El Oso is up to bat where he lays off three bad pitches. He was itching to hit though because the next pitch resulted in a glorious grand slam, the first ever for the White Bear. I can imagine all the businessmen ripping off their ties in excitement. Chris Johnson then hits a nice double along the first-base line. That signals the last batter for the AC repairman Vance, and in comes Roenicke to a game where the score is now Twins 0, Braves EIGHT. Pop up for Struggla to end the inning.

5^th Inning

Adorable Italian Colabello, who actually played in the 2013 Italy World Series game, hits a sharp ball to the short stop, but he’s totally excited he’s there, playing despite having no sleep being called up the night before and then getting stalled in Rochester before arriving on a red-eye. The Mississippi Hawaiian has only thrown 60 pitches after getting the second batter out. Dozier is sporting some 5:00 shadow at1pm on a business meeting game. I’d fire him, but then again, he gets a double. Roenicke gets the last out.

BRAVES UP

BJ and the Mississippi Hawaiian get two quick outs.  Holy cow they just show the Zaxby’s Inexplicitaly good play, and there’s a guy in a collared button-down who used his hat to catch a ball that made it to the stands. That’s what I’m talking about! His blazer was nowhere to be found, but I bet his boss will give it back to him with his pink slip because he was caught at a Braves game rather than at work. SCHAFER walks to first and then advances to second after a wild pitch. Triangle Chinhair Pena gets the last out with a boring infield hit.

6^th Inning

Escobar hits right to Chris Johnson who makes an error by dropping it when he clearly could have caught it. I’m never totally sure when there is an error, but I’m glad the new yellow “Error” box shows up now. Florimon is safe at first after a very close call on what should have been a double-play. Willingham hits a popup to Heyward in right center. Morneau hits a nice hit out to center field and brings Escobar in. Thanks a lot, CJ, for your big fat error. Score is Twins 1, Braves 8, after the sweet Italian gets out at the plate.

BRAVES UP

Ryan Pressly is pitching for the Twins now. Heyward pops up to near short. Overall though, I think he’s had a pretty solid game. Freddie, on the other hands, needs to do something. He gets all the way to a full count, and then has a pop-up to the left side. Gattis also has a long at-bat to only get an out at first. Bears can’t run.

7^th Inning

Aaron Hicks has a lazy-man’s beard with a lot of facial hair under his chin/neck but not much else. I bet he doesn’t snuggle easily with that situation. He singles and makes it to first. Oh man, Escobar’s bat flies into the stands and hits a very pretty girl who would not wear to work what she’s wearing to the game. She seems ok though. Quick outs and the inning is done.

BRAVES UP

Caleb Thielbar is the pitcher this inning with Chris Johnson up first. Thielbar has no facial hair and walks both Johnson and Struggla. BJ pops it up in foul territory for an out. Then the Mississippi Hawaiian strikes out. SCHAFER hits a double-play ending the inning.

8^th Inning

The Mississippi Hawaiian is STILL pitching! Very nice for someone with very little facial hair and who has thrown over 100 pitches. Florimon hits a line drive to short and gets out at first. Willingham hooks a base hit into left field. Willingham is actually trying to do some good things for the Twins but no one else is great. He is like the Lebron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Morneau does hit a nice bouncer to center field, and that’s the last of the Mississippi Hawaiian. Such a good game with a total of 112 pitches. Rasmus comes in to pitch to Doumit who pops up to Upton. I really want Colabello to do something awesome here for his first game in the big leagues, but he strikes out.

BRAVES UP

Thielbar is still working it for the Twins. Pena, quick out. The Braves in the dugout are as restless as I am, walking around and getting comfy. Heyward too gets a quick out at first. Freddie also gets a quick out at first to close out their batting for the day, unless Rasmus totally blows it.

9^th Inning

Rasmus actually shows a small sign of weakness when Hicks hits a home run near the right field foul pole. I start worrying that I’m never going to go to bed. But then Dozier is struck out. Oswaldo Arcia is pinch-hitting, and that is an amazing name. AND THEN HE HITS A SOLO HOMER. What the heck? Come on, people. I need some sleep. Oh man, then Escobar hits this scary looking hit waaaay out to BJ Upton who struggles to catch it. I’m starting to regret helping JD with this recap. Twins 3, Braves 8, two outs. Florimon then walks!!! Sigh. Willingham keeps the game alive with a 3-2 count but eventually strikes out.

Twins 3, Braves 8, sweep

Okay. So here’s how it was.

Top of the first Tim Hudson looked good. Bottom of the first Jason Heyward and Fre-Fre look good. 2 runs against the Twins. All is well! Drinks!

Top 2. Uh oh. Timmy’s looking a bit episodic now. Crap. I have already begun writing Huddy’s career retrospective in my head. I have no patience or faith in faltering 37 year olds. It’s a cruel game. 2-1. Drinks!

Rain! Power outages at the stadium. I will assume this is the beginning of a Cylon invasion. Doubles! In a glass. Not on the field. The field is covered by a tarp.

Top 7. Still 2-1? And Hudson pitched six?! I’m stunned. Also, not precisely sober. Night swimming!

Bottom 9. How are we losing?! I don’t like losing!! Stop it. Stop this right this very minute or I will turn this car around right now!!!

Thank you BamBam.

Top 10. Kimbrel is looking better.

Bottom 10. I don’t have time for this. End them!

Thank you Fre-Fre.

The end.

On a night when Dan Uggla hit a three run homer and BJ Upton hit a popup that carried to deep shortstop, the hero of this game was Julio Teheran. Joe Simpson would have you believe Gerald Laird’s outstanding game calling skills was the difference, like he was Crash Davis or something.

Nuke Teheran went eight and a third shutout innings  before Josh Willingham hit one off the bull. (But he gripped it like an egg…)  No word if the Braves will send Teheran to see Dr. Andrews, just to beat the rush.

After Willingham won a free steak, Luis Avilan forced a fly out to right and Corey Gearrin came on picked up the Save (TM).

On another note, the Braves only struck out four times tonight. The last three games have probably been the three best pitched games of the season.

That’s four in a row, it’s called a winning streak. 

It was a weird game. If the rain didn’t make it long enough, Don Mattingly tried to with his constant pitching changes in the latter innings. I have some sympathy for him, since it’s not like any of his pitchers actually work.

Well, I guess you could say Matt Magill was, but it constantly seemed like he was about to give up the goose over his five innings of work. He didn’t, and so on the back of another strong outing by Mike Minor, the Braves found themselves down 2-1 going into a half-hour rain delay in the bottom of the 6th. When the rain abated, Mattingly went to work, using four different pitchers get his team through the next two innings with the lead.

That was as far as they’d get, though. The Braves managed 4 runs in the 8th on only three hits, helped out by a couple walks and a timely error on an attempted sacrifice bunt by Andrelton Simmons. The Braves did managed to get a sacrifice bunt down in the inning when Jordan Schafer executed a suicide squeeze two pitches after swinging away (and luckily it off) on a pitch where Gerald Laird had broken from third. Craig Kimbrel came on to pitch the 9th against the heart of the Dodger lineup and was absolutely filthy.

Things of note:
-Fredi managed to pinch hit not once but TWICE today with his catchers. Now granted, when Laird pinch hit (and singled! WTF!) Brian McCann had already been pinch-run for, but still. Fredi used his whole bench, and it was effective.
-I still have complete confidence in Jason Heyward. He’s still walking and hitting baseballs hard. He just hasn’t had much to show from it lately.
-I really enjoyed the crowd there. They stuck it out despite the rain delay and were up for all of Kimbrel’s two-strike, 2-out pitches. Good intensity, and I’m glad they were rewarded with the win.

For 7 and 1/3 innings the Braves held true to form. Well into the 8th inning, the lineup that last night seemed so fearsome managed a mere four hits (and no walks) against Chris Capuano, the platonic ideal of pitcher who stymies the best the Braves ever boast.

But then something happened. Well, to be exact, three things happened. First, BJ Upton, a man whose OPS is almost in violation of standards first established by Warren Burger in Miller v. California, singled to left. Then Evan Gattis, no believer in tired narratives, mashed a go-ahead, pinch-hit home run. And finally Andrelton Simmons, the kind of leadoff hitter Dusty Baker used to like, hit an even longer home run to left. The Braves had taken a 3-1 lead, and Craig Kimbrel came in to seal the deal: which he did with a dominant ninth.

It’s nice for the Braves to win a game like this one for a number of reasons. It’s nice because Kris Medlen pitched a hell of a game – the lone run he surrendered was on a poorly played double by Justin Upton in the 4th – and it always sucks to spoil great starts. It’s also nice because (seemingly) for the past four weeks, the Braves have won the opening matchup in a given series and, in any number of ways, fallen apart thereafter. Tonight they obviously didn’t; tonight, in fact, they won the series, and that always feels good. But mostly it’s nice because the schedule is finally getting softer and the time seems ripe for this team to solidify its hold on the NL East. A night like tonight provided no fodder for the usual excuses – they’ve been on the road for awhile! the opponent is really good! the other team’s pitcher is Madison Bumgarner! – and thankfully, we don’t have to make any.

The Braves should have won tonight, and they won. Let’s enjoy that for a minute. Let’s enjoy that at least until tomorrow afternoon, when we’ll all obviously forget it and watch them go for the sweep against one Matt Magill.

Sorry for the late recap!

So here’s what happened last night: Jason Heyward came back and got two hits and a walk, both Paul Maholm and Eric O’Flaherty gave up a homer to Scott Van Slyke, and Justin Upton did this when the bases were juiced:

According to hittrackeronline.com, it went 454 feet.

Maholm is an okay pitcher who has pitched quite well in a Braves uniform. He’s fine as a #3/#4 starter; he usually tends to keep his teams in a position to win, which is what happened last night. Eric O’Flaherty has been worked awfully hard, and we’ll just have to hope that he isn’t broken like Jonny Venters is. Fortunately, Avilan was good and Craig Kimbrel was his nasty self. (For what it’s worth, according to Brooksbaseball.net, his four-seamer averaged 98 mph last night.)

Heyward’s 2-4 night raised his average to .145, while B.J. Upton’s 0-4 night lowered his average to .141. It’s going to be a long slog for Upton. We just have to hope it won’t be as long as it was for Carl Crawford, who suffered through two awful injury-plagued years in Boston before finally finding rejuvenation in a new city after his old team managed to dump his contract. But the only way that Upton will get out of this is by playing. We’ve heard that he’s working hard and has been seeking out the help of the coaches, so he’s approaching this with the right attitude. But he may have to stay in the 8th hole for a while.

However, Heyward’s night was great to see. He saw 24 pitches in five plate appearances, reaching base three times with a double, a single, and a walk. He had a nice, quick stroke on the double, and played his usual beautiful defense. A healthy Heyward makes this club so much better.

Beating the Dodgers is one of the great joys in life. Let’s go do it again.

Braves OPS by position (w/NL rank):
C — 856 (T-1st with PIT)
1B — 829 (8th)
2B — 711 (7th)
3B — 779 (4th)
SS — 664 (10th)
LF — 918 (3rd)
CF — 576 (13th)
RF — 709 (10th, but somehow 1st in the division!)
P — 445 (2nd to LAD)
PH — 670 (5th)

A few surprises in there — we know McCann, Gattis & Laird (was gonna make a law firm joke here, but doesn’t any grouping of three last names sound like a law firm?) have hit well, but I didn’t think they’d be tied for the NL lead (BTW, did anyone predict this Russell Martin resurgence?). Despite diverging opinions on their relative worth, it turns out Freeman and Uggla are each squarely in the middle of his respective pack. Two teams’ CFs have managed to underperform Bupton. Jupton has fallen behind usual suspects Braun and CarGo. And, unlike in 2012, the team is getting some extra hidden production from its pinch-hitters and pitching staff (last year’s totals were 298 and 475, respectively).

Top 5 NL positions by OPS:
CIN CF — 1052 (Shin-Soo Choo — who had THAT?!)
ARI 1B — 994 (Paul Goldschmidt)
MIL CF — 993 (Carlos Gomez)
COL LF — 968 (Carlos Gonzalez)
COL SS — 950 (Troy Tulowitzki)

Bottom 5 NL positions by OPS:
CIN C — 504 (a close race, but any team that voluntarily employs Corky Miller is a big favorite to win the day)
NYM 1B — 514 (Ike Davis …. LOLMets)
LAD 3B — 515 (thanks largely to a .100/.135/.100 showing by Luis Cruz)
NYM CF — 517 (might have been last a couple of days ago…fortunately Rick Ankiel has arrived …. again, LOLMets)
PIT SS — 523 (Clint Barmes)

A couple of other notes: No Marlins position is currently carrying even a 700 OPS. And that NL bottom 5 can’t hold a candle to the Mariners shortstops, where Brendan Ryan and Robert Andino have combined for a 318 OPS. 15 singles and a dozen walks comprise the totality of their offensive contributions at the position. So, hey, at least we don’t have to look at that.