Braves Journal

Jo-Jo Reyes Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

I am generally reluctant to state that any ballplayer’s problems are mental or emotional. In the case of Joseph Albert Reyes, I am here to say that the guy’s a froot loop. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to not be a serviceable major leaguer by this point. He now has three seasons of dominating the upper levels of the minors under his belt, he has great stuff — I doubt there are ten more talented lefthanded starters out there — and he really hasn’t been pushed that hard. And his career record is now 5-15 with a 6.09 ERA, largely because he’s afraid to throw strikes to major league hitters.

He’s not the first. Bruce Chen, who if anything had more ability than Reyes, was the same way — if a guy had a major league uniform on, Chen wouldn’t throw him a strike until he absolutely had to, as in, the count was 3-1, two runners were already on and one already in. Chen’s managed to play in eleven major league seasons and is likely to make it twelve this year, but he hasn’t been a tenth of the pitcher he should have been, and Reyes is on the same track. Reyes’ walk rate in the minor leagues is 3.3 per nine. In the majors, it is 4.5. Perhaps even more important are the guys whom he doesn’t walk, the guys who he has to throw get-over fastballs to, leading inevitably to an inflated home run rate, 1.5 per nine. (In the minors, he allows few homers, just .6 per nine.)

Personally, I’m surprised he didn’t wind up getting measured for a Royals uniform this offseason. It could still happen. At some point, I think you have to either get rid of him completely, or see if you can salvage him by converting him to a reliever and simplifying his role. He does have massive platoon splits, which would bode well for him as a lefty specialist.

Manny Acosta Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

So, what is his deal? Is he a flake, or is the ability he occasionally flashes an illusion? Acosta throws as hard as anyone on the staff, is not a one-pitch pitcher either, and yet he goes through periods where he can’t get anyone out. It’s very frustrating. Last season, he managed to get his strikeouts up to 7.7 per nine, which isn’t as good as it should be but is getting there, and didn’t have any corresponding loss of control. And yet, his overall results were at best mediocre, as he allowed 10.8 hits per nine, which makes no sense whatsoever for a hard-throwing reliever. The average batter hit .30/.386/.460 against Acosta last season; the OPS is actually higher than any Braves regular’s.

As an added benefit, Acosta continued to do his worst pitching in pressure situations. He was pretty good when the pressure was off, but in high and even medium-leverage situations he was a catastrophe. Eventually, the Braves will cut him loose, but I expect he will make the ballclub. Maybe he’ll turn it around.

I’ve gone through the bullpen mainstays, and I’m really not up to tackling Manny Acosta right now. So let’s talk bullpen management. Last year (this stat is from the Bill James Handbook) Bobby was the manager most likely to use a pitcher on consecutive days. I think we all knew that, instinctively, but it’s been confirmed.

Here’s the thing; this was the second consecutive season in which this was the case, but Bobby’s total relievers used went down from a league-leading 545 to a more normal 488. This is, no doubt, due to the much stronger starting rotation. Basically, the appearances by the back of the bullpen were shrunk as the starters took their innings, but Bobby piled on his top relievers more than ever. The list of most-used relievers in the majors was dominated by Braves, as Moylan, Gonzalez, O’Flaherty, and Soriano were all in the top ten in appearances. However, the next-most used reliever was Acosta, who tied for 188th, and had only one more outing than the most prolific starters.

Piling appearances on your best relievers makes sense, especially in a pennant race… but all of the top four except O’Flaherty were injury concerns coming in. On the other hand, since the Braves didn’t control Soriano’s or Gonzalez’s rights (or at least didn’t think that they did) using them hard is, if a bit cynical, arguably correct.

Off-topic, Bobby also led the majors in sacrifice bunt attempts and in pinch-runners used. This probably reflects the early season when the Braves were having such trouble scoring even though the offense didn’t seem like it should be so bad. The 125 sacrifice bunt attempts were a career high; it marked the third time, but the first since 2000, that Bobby led in sac bunts called. He actually only called for 37 pinch-runners, but the bench shortages caused by bloated bullpens have changed the standards. Bobby’s led the league in pinch runners six times now, but in previous years that always required a number in the fifties — except for 2000, when he used a remarkable 72 pinch-runners.

The good news is that he managed to control, somewhat, his penchant for calling for intentional walks. In 2007 he called for 89 and in 2008 80, both league-leading totals. Last year, he held it to more normal 59. Again, this is probably a reflection of better pitching rather than a paradigm change… BIS keeps track of the results of intentional walks, and as you’d expect they backfire a good bit. In 2007, Bobby called for so many IBB that he led in all of their categories — “good” results, “bad” results, and “bombs”. In 2008, he led in the latter two. He just called too many of the damned things, so they were bound to backfire.

Eric O’Flaherty Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

The Mariners tried to sneak a live arm back to the minors last offseason, but the Braves caught them in the act and wound up with one of the better lefthanded relievers in the game. I was critical of O’Flaherty early on, when he had trouble in a couple of early outings, but like Moylan he righted himself. He wound up making 78 appearances with a 3.04 ERA.

The red flag here is his strikeouts; he only struck out 39 in 56 and a third IP. Even for a lefthanded reliever (and O’Flaherty was not used as a pure LOOGY, facing righthanders about half the time) that is a low rate. His components are much better against lefties, and the Braves should seriouly consider limiting his role. But a lot of that is dependent upon someone else stepping up as a fourth righthanded reliever.

I am going to be allegorical here, because it’s basically the only way I know how to put this.

My oncologist prescribed a new treatment this year; let’s call it “Yunel Escobar” because it is annoying and showy but effective. And Yunel led off the treatment with a triple. Yay! It would be easy enough to get the run in/cure the cancer.

Unfortunately, it turned out that the treatment acted just like the Braves’ offense in the first half of last season, where they couldn’t score nearly as much as they should have. And it turned out that the men on deck were Francoeur and Norton. So, now there are two outs, and Yunel is still standing on third base, and who knows what he’s going to do next.

Unlike the 2009 Braves, my oncologist has a really effective pinch-hitter he can use. However, he’s so annoying that he makes Yunel look like Stan Musial, and has to be called in from outside. But he’s so good that he shouldn’t have any problem driving in Yunel. The treatment should be late this month, if nothing gets in the way.

Peter Moylan Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Makes return from Tommy John surgery look easy. In less than a year, he was ready for the start of the season. Well, almost. After his first two appearances he had given up five runs and hadn’t retired a batter. After that, he was pretty much the same old Moylan; his ERA for the season was 2.84, but if you take out those first two appearances it was 2.22.

Moylan set a Braves record with 87 appearances, and set a major league record for most appearances without allowing a home run. He’s a ground-ball pitcher, but that’s still impressive. His walk rate was up a little, which may be a TJ result, but his other components (homers and strikeouts) improved. If he’s healthy — 87 appearances! — he should be good again.

Like most sidearmers/submariners, Moylan struggles against lefties, allowing a .309/.436/.415 line against them. Despite many short outings, Bobby didn’t tend to get Moylan out of there against lefthanders, as about a third of his batters faced were lefties.

Takashi Saito Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Is old. Saito has pitched well since he came to America in 2006, but he was 36 then and will be 40 this year, which is probably why the Red Sox let him go despite a 2.43 ERA, and why the Dodgers before them let him go after three years with 81 combined saves and a 1.95 ERA. Saito hurt his arm late in 2008, which didn’t encourage the Dodgers much either. He also had some problems with his hamstrings in 2007, though he made the All-Star team that year.

Anyway, Saito avoided Tommy John surgery with an experimental, and somewhat mysterious, procedure involving blood injections in his elbow. The Red Sox picked him up and he did well. There was some decay in his rate stats, as last year he had fewer strikeouts than innings for the first time, and his walks were up as well.

Saito was mostly a starter in his Japanese career (which dated back to 1992) but pitched best in a two-year stint as a closer. I really can’t judge Japanese statistics, because I don’t know anything about Japanese baseball. His record was 87-80, which I think is actually pretty good considering his ballclub (Yokohama) is traditionally a poor team… Born in Miyagi Prefecture.

Billy Wagner Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

He’s 38 years old. In a way, he seems younger — I mean, he goes by “Billy” and he’s short and I easily remember his entire career. (Then, I’m increasingly old.) On the other hand, it seems like he’d have to be older, as he’s accomplished an awful lot. With the exception of last year’s stint, coming off of surgery, as a setup man, he’s been closing since 1996, and he has saved 385 games, sixth on the all-time list. (He’s five behind Eckersley for fifth, and 39 behind John Franco for fourth and the lefthanded record.) There aren’t many relievers, ever, who have been better than Wagner.

Wagner was a starter, and a good one, in the minors, but (basically because he’s listed at 5-11, and I doubt he’s that tall) was shifted to the bullpen as soon as he arrived in the majors. (He had never relieved in the minors before his major league debut, but has never made a major league start.) He took over the Astros’ closer role late in 1996 and held it (with the exception of an injury-plagued 2000 season) until 2003. He was traded to the Phillies, as most Astros closers seem to be, after the season for three eventual washouts. He had two strong seasons there — his 2005 may have been the best of his career — before signing a big contract with the Mets, as most closers who are about to get hurt seem to. To be fair, Wagner had two good years for the Mets and was having another one in 2008 when he blew out his elbow. Wagner worked his way back, pitched in two games for the Mets, then went to the Red Sox on a waiver deal, after which he pitched very well. The Braves signed him to a one-year deal with an option this offseason.

Wagner struck out 22 men in 15 2/3 innings pitched last year. In other words, all signs point to him still throwing hard. Few have ever thrown harder. His walk rate was a little elevated from his usual, but that’s normal coming off of Tommy John surgery. Given my rules on older pitchers, he’s a great candidate for a one-year deal. He has had basically no platoon split in his career.

Wagner probably isn’t a Hall of Fame candidate under the current standards for relievers. However, the standards for relievers are pretty fluid right now, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made it some day.

Kris Medlen Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Normally I’d do an “Other starting pitching possibilities” post, but there’s only one real possibility if someone can’t start the season, and it’s Medlen. Medlen has a lot of positives as a starting candidate, in that he’s pitched well as a starter in the minors and has great stuff. On the other hand, he’s 5-10. That’s really the only reason that anyone doesn’t think of him as a starter — though he’s probably the best long-term closer candidate that the Braves have.

Medlen made four starts with the big club, and his ERA was 6.38. That’s slightly deceptive. He pitched poorly in his first start, was great in his third, and was adequate in the other two, one of which was an emergency start in Colorado. In that small sample, he showed power — nineteen strikeouts in eighteen and a third innings — but bad control — eleven walks — and also allowed four homers. The expectation is that he would improve with experience, and the strikeouts are a nice base to improve on. As a reliever, he put up a 3.47 ERA and kept the strikeouts up, but showed much better control. The Braves hopefully won’t need him in the rotation, and he could be a major contributor in the bullpen. You probably won’t want to pigeonhole him just yet, though. Starters are a lot more valuable than relievers.

Though he was a two-way player in college, went 0-13 as a hitter in the majors. On the other hand, was a .333 hitter (in limited work) in the minors, and is a good athlete.

Kenshin Kawakami Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

It’s kind of interesting that Kawakami isn’t getting more love, because he pitched pretty well last year. His 7-12 record didn’t show it, but his 3.86 ERA did. 13 of his 25 starts were quality starts, but actually he had only five starts in which he gave up more than three earned runs; he had a lot of deep counts and didn’t get out of the sixth on several occasions when he was pitching well. I’d rather have him than Lowe out there.

I would like more strikeouts (six per nine) considering his control problems (3.3 walks per nine, the aforementioned deep counts) but he was sometimes that mythical beast, “effectively wild”, and he never had a game where the walks just overpowered him (no more than four in any start)… He worked in a six-man rotation in Japan, and there was some thought to putting him on long rest as much as possible, but he actually pitched best in normal rotation. His ERA on four days’ rest was 3.48, 4.50 on five days’, 4.45 on six days’ or more. His control was better on long rest (which is odd) but he was more homer-prone… Reverse platoon split, .252/.325/.377 against lefties, .268/.331/.504 against righties.

Looked pretty good as a reliever, and put up a 2.63 ERA, but was 0-2 with a blown save. He did pick up one save, a four-inning job in a blowout.