Braves Journal

Had a rough year by his standards, but that was basically because some singles didn’t drop. He’s one of the more effective bench players in baseball, a four-corners guy with an average bat, most of his offensive value coming in secondary skills (power and walks) rather than batting average. Hinske has had 584 plate appearances in his two years with the Braves, which is more than I thought or would have expected. In that slightly-less-than-a-full-season of work, he’s had 21 homers, 31 doubles, and 78 RBI, with most of his work coming as an outfielder or pinch-hitter. Some of Hinske’s value has usually come from his ability to play third base (not well, but not a lot worse than Chipper) but he has played the position only once with the Braves, off the bench in 2010. If Prado is traded, that might change… Actually used to run pretty well, is now really slow, and has attempted only one stolen base and hit one triple with the Braves.

Eric Hinske Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Brought back in a dumpster-diving trade at the eligibility deadline, Matt hit .286 in 37 PA in September. That’s nice, but it’s a small sample size and also he had just one walk and just one extra-base hit, a double. I love the guy, but he turns 34 in March and his overall line last year was .263/.302/.323. He didn’t hit a single home run in 268 PA. Maybe he will bounce back, and I certainly hope so, but I never did expect him to age well, and he has to add a lot — like 40 points of batting average and 100 points or so of isolated power — to be a useful player. The Braves could eat his contract, but I don’t expect them to.

A better defensive player than he’s usually given credit for. He was actually one of the better and faster baserunners on the team in his first stint in Atlanta, but that probably isn’t so anymore.

Matt Diaz Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Well, that could have gone better.

Heyward’s sophomore season began with an injury that took him out of most of spring training, followed by a season-long slump. His batting average fell by fifty points from his rookie season and his walk rate fell slightly as well. Pitchers, especially lefties, were able to tie him up inside, leading to a seemingly interminable succession of GB4s, usually very slow ones. He continued to have nagging injuries, and missed three weeks in May and June on the DL.

That being said, I think that a lot of people have overreacted. Gosh, Jason was 21 years old last year, and he wasn’t that bad. I think that his injuries were probably worse than he let on — for all that some people seemed to think he was malingering — and that he suffered more than is generally realized from missing most of spring training. (I thought at the time that they should have left him in Florida for a week or two at the start of the season, though I understand the pressure to get him in the lineup, especially considering the sucking chest wound in center field.) He’s never really struggled before, and he had some problems with that, and problems making adjustments. I think he’ll get over that.

Has a strong arm he hasn’t really tamed yet, but which could be a weapon in time. Other than that, one of the best defensive right fielders in the game. Was 9 for 11 on stolen bases, took the extra base as well as anyone last year, very fast once he gets going and accelerates better than most men his size.

Jason Heyward Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Picked up in what was generally considered a heist on the Braves’ part, Bourn was… okay in 52 games with the Braves. He hit .278/.321/.352 (actually pretty close to his career line), played good defense, and stole 22 bases in 29 attempts. (He led the league in SB… and in CS.) What he mostly did was fill a gaping hole that the Braves’ centerfield situation had been since Andruw Jones departed.

There are those who think that Bourn was helped a lot by his old ballpark, that away from Houston he’s not the same player. I don’t really see it. He’s a slap hitter who hits two homers a year, not the type of player who’s likely to be helped much by a bandbox. He would be helped a lot by a big park with Astroturf, but barring a time machine he’s not going to find one of those. A free agent after the season, and the Braves don’t seem particularly interested in re-signing him. I think that is a mistake, considering the gushing wound the team had for three and a half seasons in centerfield before the trade. On the other hand, people still overvalue speed on offense and that might drive up Bourn’s price above his value.

Michael Bourn Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

As I write, it seems likely that he will be traded, which I think would be a mistake unless the return is unexpectedly spectacular. The Braves, like most teams, have a habit of selling low; Prado’s value is pretty low right now, because he had a bad season. But there were good reasons for the bad season, and the Braves should know that.

Martin got off to a terrible start; he was hitting .268/.309/.392 on May 8. But he was adjusting to a new position and trying to hit leadoff; I think you can cut him some slack. From May 10 to June 7, he hit .291/.345/.505, which is more like it, basically typical Prado with some more power, and his season line was up to .277/.324/.438. On June 7 he suffered a “contusion” sliding at second base against the Marlins. It was a minor injury, but due to someone’s sloppy housekeeping in the Florida clubhouse, the injury became infected.

The infection was described as “staph”, that is, Staphylococcus aureus, a ubiquitous bacterium. From the severity of the infection — which from reports required intervenous antibiotics, the strain of staph was most likely MRSA. As it so happens, I was infected with MRSA only a few days later, and I can tell you that it is a bitch, and the antibiotics are not fun either. Prado returned five weeks after the original injury, which is cutting it pretty close on the antibiotic treatments. It seems very likely to me that he was still debilitated from the ordeal, as he did not play well at all for the rest of the season, hitting .244/.283/.339.

Now, did Martin Prado completely forget how to play baseball, or was he suffering the aftereffects of what is, in reality, a life-threatening illness? I know what seems more likely to me.

Martin Prado Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Some people seem to have decided that Chipper is a problem. This is dumb; he’s one of the best players on the team. He’s not what he once was, but here you’ve got a third baseman putting up a .275/.344/.470 line. The team would not be better off if he retired. Yeah, you think they could get more by moving Prado to third and getting another left fielder. I doubt it.

Chipper walked less in 2011 (after I’d spent two years calling him “Zombie Chipper” because his primary offensive strength was drawing walks and staggering to first base) and actually had one of the lowest walk rates of his career. He made up for it with a little bump in batting average and rediscovering some of his power, hitting 18 homers and 33 doubles. I don’t know that it was worth it, in the Braves’ offensive environment last year (when they had trouble getting on base) but it would have been good in 2009-10.

He struggled a bit in May and June, and was hurt for much of July and August. When he returned in late August, he went on a big tear for awhile. He needs regular rest, and there’s going to be a good chance he goes on the DL for a time. But the Braves are better when he’s in the lineup.

Chipper Jones Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

On the Fourth of July, Uggla was hitting .173/.241/.327. Over the remainder of the season, he hit .301/.386/.596. Uggla’s massive hot streak, highlighted by a 33-game hitting streak, helped keep the Braves afloat while some other guys were struggling, and brought his season numbers up to a respectable level (.233/.311/.453), even though it was still the worst year of his career and not really what the Braves expected.

That being said, he led the team in homers, RBI, and runs scored. In large part, this is because he led the team in games played, missing only one. Given the injury problems of some of the Braves’ bellweather players, Uggla’s ability to stay in the lineup is a big help.

He’s a bad second baseman; the Braves took a pretty big hit replacing Martin Prado with Uggla. You might be willing to take the poor range if he offered something else, or was at least one of those “makes the plays he should” guys, but he fielded .980; the league average at the position was .985.

Dan Uggla Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

That went better than expected. Freeman was considered something of a risk going into the season; most expected him to show raw power but there were a lot of concerns about holes in his swing and pitch recognition problems. These turned out to not be so much of a problem, and he hit just about average for a first baseman — which is pretty darned good for a 21-year-old rookie. The future looks pretty bright. Freeman’s 32 doubles and 21 homers are a good start, and so is his .282 batting average; just normal improvement should make him a real offensive plus. The biggest problem is that Heyward’s difficulties and then the McCann injury/ineffectiveness put too much of the burden on Freeman to drive the offense, and he wasn’t that good, not to mention it’s a bit of a stress on a 21-year-old rookie to be a core offensive contributor in the middle of a playoff race. Freeman hit only .143/.263/.286 in his last 14 games. He was probably tired, as rookies often are at the end of the season, finishing second on the team (to Uggla) in games played (157) and plate appearances (635).

Defensive reports differ, but generally those based on observation were kinder than those based on statistics. Generally, he did not seem to have very good range but made few mistakes and was good at saving throwing errors on the other infielders. Your call if that’s a good tradeoff; the Braves sudden fondness for guys who “make the plays they’re supposed to” (a reaction to Brooks Conrad?) may be easier on the nerves but is asking the pitchers to get a lot of outs on their own. Was thrown out stealing four times in eight attempts, largely (as I recall) on dumb sending-the-runner plays.

Freddie Freeman Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

The best backup catcher in baseball (and, by at least one measure, one of the best reserve players of all time) actually had his worst season in a Braves uniform, and still was an above-average hitter in a position where most teams will settle for “won’t kill you”. How much is this worth? Two games a year? Maybe not that much, but maybe so, and two games a year is a lot. Anyway, the variance in Ross’ productivity is largely in batting average, and he has very strong secondary skills. Ross’ career batting average is just .236, but it’s .274 with the Braves, .263 last year. This is his age 35 season coming up, but for a backup catcher that isn’t necessarily old.

Some would say that Ross should be starting somewhere, but I’m not sure that’s best for him. When McCann went down, Ross played every day — and hit .241/.293/.333. He just seems to be better when he isn’t used too much. Unfortunately, because the difference between Ross and JC Boscan is so much greater than the difference between McCann and Ross, Fredi was reluctant to rest him too much. It would be nice if the Braves could come up with a AAA catcher who at least resembles a major league backup.

David Ross Batting Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Brian, the best catcher in baseball, was finally starting to get some recognition of that status and was seemingly on his way to his best season when he suffered the ever-popular strained oblique muscle in late July. He returned after missing just a couple of weeks, but wasn’t nearly the same hitter as usual, hitting just .180/.292/.346 after his return. A lot of that looks, statistically, like bad luck, but observation indicates that he really was messed up, though whether it was lingering injury or mechanics — or both — is beyond my ken.

At any rate, he’s still the best catcher in baseball and the best player on the team, and even a month and a half of substandard play only reduced his season numbers to a bit worse than his usual. You don’t really want to have to build your offense around a catcher, since he’s going to miss at least a game a week, but that’s not his fault. The Braves’ problem in 2011 wasn’t McCann; it was that Heyward didn’t play well and Uggla sucked the life out of the offense in the first half. With those guys not helping, it put too much pressure on Mr. Reliable to perform, and when he wasn’t available or wasn’t right, the team didn’t have enough left to adjust.

Defensively, he threw out only 22 percent of opposing baserunners and Braves pitchers were charged with 44 wild pitches with him behind the plate. These are both poor rates, coming off a pretty good year (particularly on the latter part) in 2010. On the other hand, a study indicates that he’s probably the best catcher around when it comes to framing pitches. I’d rather have the latter than a guy who throws out lots of baserunners.

Brian McCann Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.