Braves Journal

Jason Heyward Minor League Statistics & History – Baseball-Reference.com.

I’m not really the person to write this; I don’t know a whole lot about prospects, and have only seen him play a couple of times. Suffice it to say, Heyward is a once-in-a-generation prospect, the sort of player every sort of evaluator puts at the top of their lists.

Heyward fell to the fourteenth pick in the first round of the 2007 draft; I don’t really understand why, as even out of high school he wasn’t considered too big of a signability risk. (Admittedly, that was an outstanding draft.) In twelve games in rookie ball, he established himself as a top prospect, hitting .302/.354/.488. He dominated Rome in 2008 — remember, he’s one of the youngest players in every league he’s in — hitting .316/.381/.473. After a brief hiccup in Myrtle Beach to end the season, he torched the place to the tune of .296/.369/.519 to start 2009, then was even better in Mississippi, .352/.446/.611, and finished up going 4-13 in three games in Gwinnett before being shut down with injuries.

Injuries are the only known hole in his armor. He walks nearly as much as he strikes out. He’s hit 29 homers in 1003 career minor league PA, and with 59 doubles shows big-time power potential. He’s a .318 career hitter, a good glove in right (who could probably handle center if necessary) and 26-31 as a basestealer.

There’s a lot to be excited about. At the same time, let’s be careful here. Post-integration, there are only about ten players who have had really great seasons at twenty years old, and actually only about ten more who have had good seasons. Since 1991, the former group includes A-Rod and the latter Justin Upton; that’s about it. If Heyward were to be league average, he would be about as good as Hank Aaron was as a twenty year old.

The way the roster is set up, I’m convinced that the Braves are intending for Heyward to start the year in the lineup, and that he would have to play himself off in spring training. Personally, I’m of the school that says better safe than sorry, and get him some work in at AAA. But when the Braves parted ways with Ryan Church, they pretty much sealed the deal from what I can tell.

Melky Cabrera Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

To get one thing out of the way, Yankee fans are idiots. Anyone who thinks that trading this guy for a Cy Young candidate hurt their ballclub needs professional help.

Melky (shorter to type and a better search term than “Cabrera”, as well as a first name that sounds slightly derogatory) is a tools guy from the Dominican who signed with the Yankees in 2001. The Yankees gave him a callup in 2005 after he hit .269/.319/.402 between AA and AAA. That a 20 year old did that is good evidence that he’s a prospect, but an outfielder who hits that is not ready for the major leagues. Nonetheless, he was in the majors for the majority of the 2006 season, hitting .280 but with no power, and up for good in 2007.

Cabrera had a bad year in 2008, hitting only .249 and seeing a second straight dive in his walk rate, but rebounded in 2009. Like a lot of Yankees, he took advantage of the bandbox that replaced Yankee Stadium, hitting nine of his career-high thirteen homers at home. However, his home-road splits are fairly close and less than most players’, I’d guess. He also hit righthanders almost as well as lefthanders for the first time. These are signs that he might be turning the corner into being a useful player, but he was rushed, and the Yankees, with their nigh-unlimited resources, didn’t have to do that.

Reports of his defense differ, but the consensus is that he’s basically a tweener, good enough in a corner but without the bat for one, and not really a centerfielder. The Yankees tended to push him to a corner in 2009, with Brett Gardner playing center… Joins Diaz and McLouth on the Braves’ list of pick-a-spot basestealers; he’s not a big amasser of steals but is 44 of 58 for his career and was ten of twelve last year.

Interesting group of comps. The most similar hitter, through age 24, is Curt Flood, which is probably right… but those numbers were a lot more impressive in Flood’s time, and Flood was a transcendent centerfielder, which even Melky’s boosters won’t claim for him. Second is a New York binky of a previous decade, Lee Mazzilli, who never turned into the player he was supposed to. But third is Johnny Damon. It’s the chance of him turning into Damon that makes him interesting.

Nate McLouth Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

McLouth was fairly disappointing afer coming over from the Pirates, as he was pretty much average. He was average on defense, which was a step up for him (even though he’d won a Gold Glove in 2008, as he’d actually been quite bad that season) but average at the plate and on the bases. You can live with that, but the Braves expected better. To be fair, he was battling injuries most of the way.

Compared to his 2008 All-Star season, McLouth saw a twenty-point drop in batting average and a 61-point drop in slugging, that with the Braves was a 78-point drop. He didn’t lose homers, but went from leading the league with 46 doubles to hitting only 27. I don’t know what to make of that.

He was particularly disappointing on the basepaths; one of the best basestealers in the game with the Pirates, he was caught six of eighteen times with the Braves. I think that can be definitively attributed to the injury… Defensively, is strong on short plays but sometimes has trouble going back on balls. He apparently made some adjustments last year to help with that… Most-similar player through Age 27 is Brad Wilkerson, not a good sign.

Matt Diaz Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Bounced back, big time, from his 2008 annus horribilis and had, statistically, his finest season, due to a big walk spike that pushed his on-base percentage to .390, and a career high 425 plate appearances. He was much less reliant on batting average than earlier in his career, with a .288 secondary average that beat his previous high by 63 points. He also wound up playing a significant amount in right field, and even two games in center, without embarrassing himself. All in all, a successful year.

However, that hides the real story of the season, which is that Diaz is increasingly reliant upon his ability to pound lefthanded pitching. Against lefthanders, he was Rogers Hornsby, hitting .412/.464/.640. Against righties, he was more Roger Cedeno, hitting .255/ .349/.400. And, of course, he wound up getting the majority of his at-bats against righthanders, so sixty percent of the time he was Cedeno. If Diaz can get back to hitting .300, even an empty .300, against righthanders, he’s a usuable everyday player. If he can’t, he really needs to be platooned, but the Braves aren’t in a position to do that. Diaz, limited as he is, is probably a better hitter against righthanders than Melky, and they aren’t going to give left field to Gregor Blanco.

Tied for the team stolen base lead with twelve, and led the team with four triples. He’s probably the fastest position player on the team, though Jurrjens is probably faster… I’ve a feeling that this is Diaz’s last year in a Braves uniform. He’ll be 32, which is about the age when a player who isn’t a star is hard to hang on to. It will be his fifth season as a Brave; he’s longer-tenured than any player in a Braves uniform other than Chipper, Hudson, and McCann. (The only other member of the 2006 team still with the club? Prado.) Most-similar batter through age 31 is Mike Easler, which is just perfect.

The Braves can’t really afford for Infante to go down again, because the second utility infielder position does not look like a strong point. Brooks Conrad and Diory Hernandez return from last year’s team. Conrad showed the same problems that have kept him in the minors for so long, an inability to make regular contact and defensive movement resembling Keith Lockhart riding on a Galapagos tortoise. Conrad’s defensive statistics were not actually too bad, and in 58 plate appearances he had two homers, two triples, and a double. Unfortunately, he had only six singles, and he can’t survive hitting .204. Hernandez, meanwhile, hit very well in AAA but upon promotion in no way resembled a major league ballplayer, hitting .141/.198/.212 and looking awkward defensively, though again his defensive stats are pretty good.

The Braves also signed Joe Thurston to a minor league contract. Thurston more or less blundered into a regular job with the Cardinals much of last season, playing third much much of the first half and backing up at second, winding up with 307 plate appearances, which I sure were a surprise to him. He didn’t hit, .225/.316/.330, and there’s really little sign that he ever will, though he did flash some secondary offense, and is a career .295 hitter in the minor leagues.

The Braves don’t really have anybody you could call an infield prospect. Thurston is the only infielder not on the 40-man who has gotten a spring training invite. Van Pope, JC Holt, Barbaro Canizares, and Wes Timmons are all on the AAA roster; none will be involved unless something really remarkable happens. The first two have some defensive ability but can’t hit; the other two can hit some but can’t field. None is nearly as promising a player as Hernandez.

The third catcher will be the seemingly immortal Clint Sammons; with any luck, he’ll get to enjoy life in the suburbs until September.

Brooks Conrad Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Diory Hernandez Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Joe Thurston Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Clint Sammons Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Omar Infante Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Omar was having an amazing year, hitting .349 off the bench through May 20, when his hand was broken on a hit-by-pitch. He worked his way back and returned August 11, though he did not hit as well as he had in the first half. You can’t really expect .349, of course, and he was still a valuable bench player.

Infante might be the best utility player the Braves have had. (I would rank him with Mark DeRosa and Jerry Royster.) In each of the last two seasons, he’s played six positions, including a credible shortstop, and hit reasonably well, albeit for little power. I call this kind of a player a Nail — as in, a small thing, but for the want of him, pennants are lost.

Doesn’t really shine at any one position, but provides consistent play in a C+ to C- range. That’s immensely valuable… Didn’t ground into a double play in the first half, but into five when he returned, and was probably a step slow as well as hurt.

One of the most underrated players in baseball. Even his own team doesn’t seem to hold him in that high regard, though that appears to be because he’s a bit of a punk. But what we have here is a gold glove-level shortstop who hit .300 (okay, .299) with medium-range walks (.377 OBP) and power (.436 SLG). He’s entering his prime, assuming his age (27 in 2010) is correct. If he could get through the season without an injury, we’d really be talking.

Continues to be a weird player, probably the weirdest on the team now that KJ is gone. Oddly, Yunel was great against righthanders (.327/.392/.472) and terrible against lefties (.232/.343/.348). Don’t ask me why. Despite his defense, which is legitimately outstanding, doesn’t actually seem to be that great of an athlete, and is a remarkably bad baserunner. Walked just about as often as he struck out — except in June, when he walked only twice and struck out eleven times… Hit .340 in high-leverage situations.

Yunel Escobar Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Chipper Jones Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

He’s had better years. Chipper’s batting average dropped by 100 points from his title-winning .364, and his homers fell from 22 to 18 despite more than fifty more plate appearances. The cause is a bit hard to diagnose as his strikeouts rose only a little bit. If he was really done, you would expect a big rise in “non-contact” plate appearances, with both strikeouts and walks going up, but that didn’t happen. He didn’t look good at the plate much of the time, but statistically it was basically all batting-average-on-balls-in-play, which accounted for 96 points of the drop. Just luck? I don’t know. He was terrible in September and looked tired. His ability to stay in the lineup more (he played in his most games since 2003) might have paradoxically hurt him, as he didn’t get the rest he normally has the last few years. Bobby needs to give the man a break more often.

Hit lefthanders much better than righthanders for a change; half his homers came righthanded. Of course, managers still try to turn him around… Though he’s slow, he’ll steal the occasional base. He was 4-of-5 last year, and is 26-of-30 since 2004… Had a bad year defensively after making much improvement late in his career. His .930 fielding percentage was a career low, and his range dropped to a level where he really can’t carry the errors. A lot of the complaints about his defense over the years haven’t been warranted, but they were last year. Escobar gives him a little protection, but not that much.

Martin Prado Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com

Prado has gone from a non-prospect potential utility infielder to a regular fairly rapidly. Two years ago, nobody thought he would be here, but after tearing up the league for much of 2009 the Braves gave him the second base job and let Kelly Johnson go. Despite last season, it’s not definitively clear that Prado is a better player than Johnson, but he really hasn’t done anything but hit since he made the majors. Prado’s career batting line is .307/.360/.451, and last year he hit almost exactly that, .307/.358/.464. It’s very much a batting average-driven sort of offense, something of which I’m not really fond, and it’s reliant upon a .336 career batting average on balls in play.

Prado resembles Matt Diaz in a way, and like Diaz does a lot of his damage against lefthanders, against whom he hit .301/.392/.531, with six of his eleven homers (in about half as many PA as against righthanders). Like Diaz, he hits for a high average against righthanders, but with less power and fewer walks. Given the Braves’ normal problems last year with lefties, that wasn’t a big concern, but might be this year.

I have been relentlessly critical about Prado’s defense, but he was pretty much average at second base last year (by range factor and plus/minus, the two things I usually look at). He does make some comical mistakes still, but those aren’t a big deal in the big picture. He’s a pretty good third baseman, but probably won’t play there any in 2010… Terrible baserunner, last year at any rate, slow (1 of 4 SB attempts, no triples) and while not too prone to getting thrown out, one of the many Braves who seemingly couldn’t score from second on a single, much less first on a double.

Eric Hinske Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com

A poor man’s, lefthanded Glaus, a third baseman who’s spent his career living down an early season his skills couldn’t really sustain. In Hinske’s case, he won a Rookie of the Year award with the Blue Jays in 2002 for hitting .279/.365/.481 with 24 homers, a legitimate ROY type season. But rather than build on it, Hinske went backward almost immediately. He was below-average in 2003 and 2004, and average in 2005, before playing well in the first half of 2006. Wanting to dump him and his contract, the Blue Jays out and out sold him to the Red Sox in August of that year. He retreated to average for the rest of that season, and stunk in 2007. This left him no other choice but to sign with the Rays. He had an odd year, hitting 20 homers (second-best for his career) but only .247, with a .333 OBP, robbing him of most of his value. He started 2009 with the Pirates, where suddenly his power disappeared (only one homer in 126 PA) but after he was traded to the Yankees it reappeared (seven in 98).

Was a third baseman; when he stopped looking like a star he became a utility player, who plays third, first, and both outfield corners. He’s not great at any of them but won’t kill you either… Natural platoon player, career line of .263/.347/.456 against righthanders, only .221/.296/.370 against lefties. He obviously won’t platoon with Glaus at first base unless something goes catastrophically wrong, but an occasional spot start there against tougher righties would be smart. I expect that when Chipper sits, Infante will get the call, but Hinske’s a better bet to play some third than Norton was. Like Norton in 2008, there’s a good chance that he will be the team’s best option in an outfield corner against righthanders, but I don’t expect to see it.